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MLB Second Half Top Player Prop Bet Picks

By Dave Schwab

The weekend’s MLB action marks the official start of the second half of the 2017 regular season as the top contending teams begin their push for this season’s quest for a World Series title. In conjunction with the second half of action on the field, the top online sportsbooks have recently updated the betting odds for a number of highly popular MLB player props. The trick to cashing in on any of these various props is to find the best value in the numbers. Here are two that moved to the top of my list.

MLB Home Run Leader

This past Monday’s Home Run Derby should help to fuel the betting action for the most MLB home runs prop. This is in light of New York Yankees’ rookie phenom Aaron Judge’s incredible performance in which he belted a total of 47 dingers including a record of 23 in the first round to win that competition going away.

Judge has already hit 30 homes in his first 86 games this season and his odds to end the season as the MLB home run leader are now set at +130. From what I saw on Monday night, as well as from his plate performances in the first half, there is still quite a bit of value in these odds at plus money. Even though Judge is a rookie, he plays like a veteran and I do not see him tailing off as the season wears on. It also helps that the Yankees should remain in the playoff hunt deep into the season which will only help to drive him even harder, and it is sure to affect their scores and odds. You can also get +150 odds on Judge against the field at -180.

The betting odds for a few of the other top contenders in this prop include Miami’s Giancarlo Stanton at +350 and Houston’s George Springer at +700. Stanton has belted 26 home runs in the first half and Springer’s total stands at 27. Both are worthy candidates to win this prop, but I am still going chalk with Judge as my top play.

National League MVP

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 53-36 heading into the second half of the season and while they have faded to 7.5 games in back of the blazing Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West Division title race, they remain in excellent shape to make the playoffs this year. A big reason for this team’s unexpected success has been the play of first baseman Paul Goldschmidt to the point where he is a +175 favorite to win this year’s National League MVP. The odds are justified in light of his .312 batting average to go along with his 20 home runs and 67 RBI. With Arizona in the thick of the playoff race, I would expect him to keep on putting up some big numbers from here on in.

The second-favorite in this prop is Washington’s Bryce Harper at +400. I really like the value in these odds given Harper’s overall worth to his team and his ability to crank up the heat over the second half of the season. The Nationals have a comfortable 9.5-game lead in the NL East, but they have not really played to their lofty expectations at 52-36. In light of what the Dodgers have been able to accomplish over the last month or so, the pressure is going to be dialed up on Harper and the rest of the Nationals’ staff to avoid another early exit from the MLB postseason.

Cincinnati’s Joey Votto’s odds to win MVP are set at +700, but with the Reds going nowhere fast, there is little value in that number. Both Colorado’s Nolan Arenado and the Dodgers’ Corey Seager and Justin Turner are all set as +900 fourth-favorites. Of the three, Arenado offers the best value with the other two player’s efforts actually working against one another on the same team.

My top pick for this player prop would be Harper at +400 with the best value on the board. I believe he is poised to actually elevate his game over the next few months after already setting the bar pretty high with his first half numbers.

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