Betting Against the Public Consensus

In general, betting consensus numbers that you may see posted at any of the various online sports information betting sites are simply a collection of feedback from sports bettors as to which direction they are each leaning towards in any particular matchup. Numbers in the form of a percentage are posted for betting on the sides of a game or on the total line for the final combined score.  A betting consensus is basically a snapshot of opinion as to which way you should bet in a game.

The one thing that any betting consensus posted at any sports information website in the Internet sports betting industry has in common with one another is that nine times out of 10 it will be skewed heavily towards the favorite when it comes to a bet on a side and toward the OVER when it comes to a bet on the total. There is no real rhyme or reason for this sports betting phenomenon other than the notion that sports fans in general like betting on winning teams and high scoring games.

Online sportsbooks are well aware of this common betting mentality and many times they will look to exploit it by teasing the betting lines to make it even more attractive for betting on the favorite and the OVER on the total line. You always have to remember that the pointspread is the great equalizer when it comes to betting on sports such as football and basketball. They are designed to properly handicap any matchup to the point where it becomes equally attractive to bet on one side or the other. This also pertains to the UNDER or the OVER on the total line.

Savvy sports bettors know that if any online betting outlet is trying to steer bettors one way or the other in any particular matchup is because it is in its best interest when it comes to capitalizing on the 10 percent commission (or juice) they stand to make on that game. A perfect example of this was in the first game of the new 2017 NFL regular season. Most of the betting money was on New England as the clear Week 1 home favorite against Kansas City and just about any betting consensus that you may have come across leading up that matchup also heavily favored the Patriots to win and easily cover the eight or nine point spread that had been posted for that game.

Kansas City went on to crush New England 42-27 to easily cover against the spread at any particular online sportsbook taking action on that game. That is why they play the games and that is why there are so many offshore sportsbooks in business these days.

The average recreational bettor does not perform any in-depth breakdown of a particular matchup before putting their money down on who they think will win. Most times they are betting with the hearts and not their heads. New England had been touted as the best team in the NFL since its miraculous come-from-behind victory in Super Bowl LI. Once they added even more talent to a very talented team, there was no longer any room on this bandwagon. Predictions of a 16-0 run through the regular season ran deep and there was no way the Patriots could lose at home on opening day.

The main reason that you should look for weekly opportunities to bet against the public when the consensus is heavily weighted towards one side of a matchup against the other is because it is a proven fact that the betting public is wrong many more times than it is right. Betting statistics over the past several years in the NFL have shown that when the betting consensus shifts towards one team at a rate of 75 percent or higher, that same betting public loses close to 54 percent of the time.