2018-2019 Scores&Stats MLB Betting Power Rankings: Week 4
by Brad Mullins Scores & Statson
The trick with baseball is finding value on the best teams and following those teams all season long. This power ranking will be based on “against the spread” performance from week to week. In baseball, “the spread” is the “run line.” The money line is the straight up record. When a team wins a regular season game, they have just beaten the money line, but possibly, did not beat the run line.
This ranking is not a popularity contest or which team has the best lineup or the best rotation. This ranking is about beating the spread, (money line/run line). We will base this ranking from week to week on who has a better record against the spread and the team’s performance from a betting perspective. In baseball, this usually means that the best teams, with the best records, are the decisively better teams to bet on, however, there are exceptions.
World Series Odds:+2800 Record: 16-9 SU and 15-10-0 Rune Line Previous Rank: 2
The Seattle Mariners are legitimate. This team hit the skids the week before but rebounded nicely. At 16-9, this team is a solid betting value. The run line is suspect. The problem; hanging on late. The Mariners have issues in middle and late relief. This will get them eventually.
World Series Odds:+550 Record: 15-9 SU and 10-14-0 Run Line Previous Rank: 11
The Dodgers are truly no better than the Mariners. Their pitching certainly has more potential and the bats are heating up. The Dodgers are an interesting team on the money line but a hazard against the run line.
World Series Odds:+1400 Record: 14-8 SU and 14-8-0 Run Line Previous Rank: 1
The Rays are the best team in baseball against the run line. They are a slugger’s dream and hitting the ball oh so well. This will last! This team is good, and we said they would win 90 games, we may have underestimated this team's metal. The Yankees look mediocre, the Red Sox and Blue Jays look awful, right now, the Rays are a great bet both ways. This team will be in contention all season long.
World Series Odds:+500 Record: 13-8 SU and 8-13-0 Run Line Previous Rank: 4
The Astros are playing well, and the opposite of the Mariners, having gone 7-3 in the last 10 games and Seattle going 3-7. After the dust settled, the Mariners still hold a one-game lead in the AL West. The Astros are a team that can break-out at any moment and wins 10 in a row! Look for them to get better as the weeks continue.
World Series Odds:+1200 Record:13-10 SU and 11-12-0 Run Line Previous Rank: 6
The Brewers have three players hitting .295 or better, and four players hitting .239 or better with three of those four, hitting over .250. There is consistency at the plate with a .334 OBP. The one question mark is in the pen, do they have enough for the long-haul? Probably not. As a bettor, you need consistency; the jury is still out.
World Series Odds:+5000 Record: 12-7 SU and 11-8-0 Run Line Previous Rank: 14
The Pirates are 12-7 after having a great week against weak opponents, they did what they were supposed to do. Now they must continue in a 4 set vs. the Diamondbacks, they should take 3 of 4, then head out to LA for 3, that will be the test. Early on will be rolling, how do they finish the week?
World Series Odds:+3000 Record: 12-7 SU and 8-11-0 Run Line Previous Rank: 15
The Twins are another team that has taken full advantage of a week’s worth of a weak schedule as they find themselves atop of the heap in the AL Central. Cleveland will breathe down their necks with big bats. This season will clearly be a pitching battle between C town and the Twin Cities. The run line looks shaky, but they are winning games, for now.
World Series Odds:+12500 Record: 12-8 SU and 13-7-0 Run Line Previous Rank: 17
The Rangers keep on keeping on and that’s a good thing for the competitive nature of the AL West. This team is undervalued in Vegas, they may not have big names such as Trout or Harper, but it clearly doesn’t matter.
World Series Odds:+900 Record: 12-9 SU and 10-11-0 Rune Line Previous Rank: 10
The Phils are disappointing for one reason; they are not 18-3! Come on now, Harper is good, and he will have a lasting impact for years to come but expecting a miracle; it’s too early. This team will get better and fight all-season for the division.
World Series Odds:+1400 Record: 12-9 SU and 10-11-0 Run Line Previous Rank: 16
The Indians rebounded after the Royals debacle and the Kluber mess. This team has big bats and will continue to pound the baseball, they can hit, but can’t pitch consistently, run line against is the growing trend.
World Series Odds:+3500 Record: 12-11 SU and 10-13-0 Run line Previous Rank: 3
The Padres have come back down to planet earth and quickly. This team has a pile of youth and raw talent, but the keyword here, raw. The good news for the Padres is the competition in the NL West – just the Dodgers.
World Series Odds:+1800 Record: 11-10 SU and 12-9-0 Run Line Previous Rank: 8
The Mets are a solid bet on the run line because they are always in a game, they keep it close and they have hit. They must fill a couple of holes in the rotation or this will end as it did last season.
World Series Odds:+1800 Record: 11-10 SU and 10-11-0 Run Line Previous Rank: 9
The NL East will be the most competitive division in baseball and with 1.5 games separating the top 4, look for this trend to continue. The Braves won this division and they could care less where Harper is or isn’t. Right now, the entire division is not a great bet.
World Series Odds:+2000 Record: 10-10 SU and 9-11-0 Run Line Previous Rank: 19
The Nationals are a game and a half out of first place with a 10-10 record, this speaks to the competitiveness of the NL East. The Nationals will not stay in this position, they simply do not have the pitching.
World Series Odds:+7500 Record: 9-13 SU and 13-9-0 Run Line Previous Rank: 12
The Angels have a lot of work to do and it seems as if they are not serious about getting the work done, however, they play great defense and Trout is back. They have to get better and they are decent against the run line.
World Series Odds:+850 Record: 9-13 SU and 6-16-0 Run Line Previous Rank: 23
“The Red Sox are awful right now, it won’t last, look at the Astros. The Sox will be fine and will find their groove.” We still believe this team is loaded with talent and they will start winning. Be cautious, don’t bet the farm, let them get back in their own time.
World Series Odds:+30000 Record: 8-15 SU and 10-13-0 Run Line Previous Rank: 22
The Orioles are a bad baseball team and right where we thought they would start the season. They had a miracle series in New York and then hit the skids. This team will be tough to think of betting on.
World Series Odds:+50000 Record: 6-16 SU and 9-13-0 Run Line Previous Rank: 29
The Marlins lack talent, they lack hitting, pitching, defense, and everything that it takes to play baseball. This team has a great GM, at least he was great for 20 seasons as a Yankee, but who knows what he is doing in South Florida. This is a disaster. Bet against this team, every chance you get, you will come out as the winner.