The trick with baseball is finding value on the best teams and following those teams all season long. This power ranking will be based on “against the spread” performance from week to week. In baseball, “the spread” is the “run line.” The money line is the straight up record. When a team wins a regular season game, they have just beaten the money line, but possibly, did not beat the run line. 

This ranking is not a popularity contest or which team has the best lineup or the best rotation. This ranking is about beating the spread, (money line/run line). We will base this ranking from week to week on who has a better record against the spread and the team’s performance from a betting perspective. In baseball, this usually means that the best teams, with the best records, are the decisively better teams to bet on, however, there are exceptions. 


Previous Rankings: Preseason


MLB ATS Trends:

Road Teams: 24-30 44.44%
Home Teams: 30-24 55.56%
Favorites: 21-33 38.89%
Underdogs: 33-21 61.11%
Road Favorites: 4-13 23.53%
Road Underdogs: 20-17 54.05%
Home Favorites: 17-20 45.95%
Home Underdogs: 13-4 76.47%

Over & Under Trends:

Extra-Inning Games: Overs 1 25% Unders 3 75%
Non-Extra-Inning Games: Overs 24 50% Unders 24 50%
Total Games: Overs 25 48.08% Unders 27 51.92%


1. Seattle Mariners 

World Series Odds: +5000
Record: 5-1 SU and 6-0-0 Rune Line
Previous Rank: 20

The Seattle Mariners stuck it to the Red Sox and it was embarrassing. We get it, it’s early, it’s extremely early but this was a dream opening for M’s fans. Here is the bottom line; they are pounding the baseball with an eyepopping g 48 runs scored! Insanity! Will it continue? Who knows, but right now, the Mariners are hot.


2. Philadelphia Phillies 

World Series Odds: +900
Record: 3-0 SU and 3-0-0 Rune Line
Previous Rank: 5

The Phils have done exactly what their fans expected them to do, win. They got their $300 million dollar man and the offense in this town is ramped up and ready to take over the division. The Braves had better keep one eye open as well as the Mets. This team can hit, run, score and defend. 


3. Tampa Bay Rays

World Series Odds: +4000
Record: 2-1 SU and 3-0-0 Run Line
Previous Rank: 15

The Rays got the solid start they needed from their starters and this adds further proof to the theory they can compete in the AL East. Why not? They won 90 games last year and will do it again.


4. Los Angeles Dodgers

World Series Odds: +1400
Record: 3-1 SU and 3-1-0 Run Line
Previous Rank: 17

Do not doubt the Los Angeles Dodgers. This team went out in the offseason and got the bullie shored up and they got a starter or two. They are blasting the baseball with 42 runs scored, however, they have allowed 22, that’s troublesome early but nice on the over. 


5. Milwaukee Brewers

World Series Odds: +5000
Record: 3-1 SU and 3-1-0 Run Line
Previous Rank: 9

The Brewers know how to win, and they have the pitching to win 85-90 games. They gave the Dodgers a run last season and will give the NL Central a serious run all-season. 


6. San Diego Padres

World Series Odds: +4000
Record: 1-3 SU and 3-1-0 Run line
Previous Rank: 19

The Padres were showing signs of life last season and now they Machado and a beefed-up rotation that will compete with the Dodgers. Look for this team to play well in the early going.


7. New York Mets  

World Series Odds: +20000
Record: 2-1 SU and 2-1-0 Run Line
Previous Rank: 13

The Mets must weather the storm without Yoenis Cespedes. This season could start with Noah, and end with Noah. 


8. Oakland Athletics

World Series Odds: +40000
Record: 2-1 SU and 2-1-0 Run Line
Previous Rank: 14

The A’s won so many games last season with a dire lack of pitching. This team is all about the fundamentals of the game and they showed it with 90+ wins. They will be hard pressed to match last season.


9. Kansas City Royals

World Series Odds: +5000
Record: 2-1 SU and 2-1-0 Run Line
Previous Rank: 27

Yes, the Royals are 9th on this list. We see it because we put them here. This is a nominally and it won’t last. The Royals are in a complete rebuild, mode and they could lose close to 90 games.


10. Baltimore Orioles

World Series Odds: +20000
Record: 2-1 SU and 2-1-0 Run Line
Previous Rank: 30

The Orioles have already done their job; take it to the Yankees. Season over! They have the opportunity to start fresh and whether their pitching holds up on any level is the question, right now, they are a good bet to keep games close. 


11. Minnesota Twins

World Series Odds: +6600
Record: 1-3 SU and 2-2-0 Run Line
Previous Rank: 18

Nelson Cruz can’t hurt anything! In fact, he will be the big stick this team needs. Can they win more than 81 games? Doubtful.


12. Texas Rangers

World Series Odds: +25000
Record: 2-2 SU and 2-2-0
Previous Rank: 26

We know the Rangers are awful and they are simply biding their time until moving to new digs. This team will easily lose 90 games this season, right now however, they look good, be extremely cautious. 


13. Detroit Tigers

World Series Odds: +2500
Record: 2-2 SU and 2-2-0 Run Line
Previous Rank: 28

Another middle of the pack baseball team that’s hoping for some kind of rags to riches story. Not going to happen. They refuse to spend money, and, in this league, you must spend it to win it. I.E. Phillies. 


14. Colorado Rockies 

World Series Odds: +4000
Record: 2-2 SU and 2-2-0 Run Line
Previous Rank: 12th

The Rockies pressed the NL West last season and they were close. They have the ability to get hot at any given moment but consistently is the problem. This team can win 80+ games and maybe more if they find a solid back-half to the rotation. 


15. Miami Marlins 

World Series Odds: +8000
Record: 2-2 SU and 2-2-0 Run Line
Previous Rank: 29

This may be Jeter’s team, but they are a long way from 1998. They may as well be on the moon. Paul O’Neil has left the building, along with Bernie, Mo, and 15 other stars. Having said that, they are rebuilding, and they have a ton of money to get what they want when they want it. 


16. Toronto Blue Jays

World Series Odds: +5000
Record: 1-3 SU and 2-2-0 Run Line
Previous Rank: 24

The Toronto Blue Jays have a tough row to hoe playing in the AL East. If this team can smell .500 they will be lucky. 


17. Los Angeles Angels

World Series Odds: +700
Record: 3-1 SU and 2-2-0 Run Line
Previous Rank: 1st

With the best player in baseball one would think the Angels would be in the brink of greatness, not this year. As much as this team coughed up for Trout, they need to match on a rotation that’s relevant. 


18. St. Louis Cardinals 

World Series Odds: +6600
Record: 1-1 SU and 1-1-0 Run Line
Previous Rank: 10

The Cardinals will challenge the NL Central and will be better than the Cubs. The real competition for the Milwaukee Brewers will be the Red Birds. 


19. Arizona Diamondbacks 

World Series Odds: +8000
Record: 1-1 SU and 1-1-0 Run Line
Previous Rank: 16

The D Backs gave everyone a ride last season, but it was false hope. They have made all of the wrong moves and the Reds are the benefactors, look for the former, to be better!


20. Pittsburgh Pirates

World Series Odds: +1200
Record: 1-2 SU and 1-2-0 Run Line
Previous Rank: 22

The Pirates play great defense and that’s all folks. They need a bat, they need pitching and they need a bullpen, but they must need the bullpen first! This team will struggle to score and struggle to get on base. 


21. Cincinnati Reds

World Series Odds: +550
Record: 1-2 SU and 1-2-0 Run Line
Previous Rank: 23

The Reds made some nice moves and it cost very little for the Dodgers but a lot for the Diamondbacks. This team will be better but will need to fight for 75 wins. 


22. Cleveland Indians

World Series Odds: +8000 
Record: 1-2 SU and 1-2-0 Run Line
Previous Rank: 8

The Indians are simply not the same team they were a couple of years back and without a commitment to pitching, they will be stuck in the same boat as last season, outside looking in.


23. New York Yankees

World Series Odds: +2500
Record: 3-3 SU and 2-4-0 Run Line
Previous Rank: 3

The Yankees will be fine. The Orioles have certainly put a damper on the opening weekend, but it matters not. The Yankees are a deep team with big bats and solid pitching with the best bullpen in baseball. They will win 95+ games. 


24. Chicago White Sox

World Series Odds: +1200
Record: 1-2 SU and 1-2-0 Run Line
Previous Rank: 21

Expect nothing and hope to get something. The Sox have solid young pitching talent, and some serious defense, but will struggle at the plate.


25. Chicago Cubs 

World Series Odds: +8000
Record: 1-3 SU and 1-3-0 Run Line
Previous Rank: 6

The Cubs will be tough to beat, but they are beatable. We think they are old and beat up on the mound and this bad start shows just that. Give them some time. 


26. San Francisco Giants

World Series Odds: +1400
Record: 3-1 SU and 1-3-0 Run Line
Previous Rank: 25

The Giants are old and very washed up and have committed nothing to the future. This team will struggle to win 70 games.


27. Houston Astros 

World Series Odds: +600
Record: 1-3 SU and 1-3-0 Run Line
Previous Rank: 2

The 2nd best team in baseball finds themselves here in the 26th spot on our ranking but this will be short lived. The Astros are very good and still have the best pitcher over the last five years in the MLB. Look for this team to win 100 games. 


28. Washington Nationals

World Series Odds: +1600
Record: 1-2 SU and 0-3-0 Run Line
Previous Rank: 11

Things look bleak, and from a betting standpoint they are. Lay off this team but lay off with caution. We are not saying to bet the house against them. 


29. Boston Red Sox

World Series Odds: +1800
Record: 1-2 SU and 0-3-0 Run Line
Previous Rank: 1

The Red Sox are the best team in baseball and yes, they were taken to the woodshed by the Seattle Mariner but that was that. This team will be fine. They have a ton of hitting and a ton of pitching. The Red Sox will make a deep run and they will be a contender this entire season. They will be a solid bet, bank on it. 


30. Atlanta Braves

World Series Odds: +6600
Record: 0-3 SU and 0-3-0 Run Line
Previous Rank:  7

The Braves have no bats right now and they have allowed 23 runs. They have issues and it starts on the hill. They will be better than what they appear but initially, their slow start is a huge red flag. They must get that first win under their belt.


Major League Baseball Game Previews and Predictions


 

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