As we head into December in the NBA, one tried and true handicapping method is running hot. To this point of the NBA season, home underdogs are showing plenty of bite and are a money-making 63-49 ATS, 56.2%. (Thru Nov.30)

Why the uptick thus far? Let's examine some of the reasons.

Elite Teams Not Putting Up Elite Results

Coming into the season, we expected the best teams to mostly be who they were last year, outside of Cleveland. That's how the NBA has always worked. But so far, that has not been the case.


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Golden State, Houston, Boston, and New Orleans have not assembled records close to what expected to this juncture of the season. That does not mean these teams will not reach their expected watermarks by 82 games, just the fact at this time they have not. Here is how these teams have performed as road favorites.

Warriors 2-5 ATS
Rockets 2-5 ATS
Celtics 2-4 ATS
Pelicans 0-2 ATS

That is a collective 6-16 ATS, which accounts for a large portion of the deficit and has been a real boost to home underdogs facing these clubs. To say these teams have gotten off to a disappointing start for their backers is an understatement.

The remainder of the negative performance comes from the Eastern Conference, thanks to Philadelphia and Washington. The Sixers are 0-4 ATS handing out digits to home pooches and the Wizards are jackals at 0-3 ATS.

Sportsbooks Also Having Impact On Home Underdogs

In talking to other big NBA bettors and handicappers, they have noticed the same thing, but have different explanations for why it has turned out this way.

Literally, since the start of the season, the posted odds have been very aggressive from the sportsbooks. We have seen a myriad of underdogs at 10 or more. In addition, games and teams that are normally at 3 to 4.5 point spreads, are now at 4.5 to 6 points on a regular basis. These type of aggressive odds are usually something you see starting after the All-Star game when a great deal of information been collected and it's given who most of the playoff teams are and who has no shot at the postseason and might be in tank mode.


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Some of those I talked to believe sportsbooks have consistently shown better results after the All-Star break and as opposed to just inching numbers up as the season moves along and not be as obvious, they have decided to create a "new norm" from the start of the season which makes changes later less noticeable.

Others have expressed that the difference between the best teams and those in the bottom 40 percent has never been greater in terms of team talent and cohesiveness. They are of the opinion this is accounting for larger than anticipated spreads, with oddsmakers just setting values on power ratings and factoring in everything else afterward.

Whatever it is, home underdogs have benefitted enough and its noticed, making it be something you should on the lookout for as an NBA bettor.

About the Author

Doug Upstone has been involved in sports handicapping in some form or another his entire adult life. NOBODY watches and studies games more than he does. Whether it is live or going back and watching later, Doug has game notes and observations dating back two decades. (Yes, somehow he’s still married to his original wife.)

Doug is process person, meaning he’s developed his own power ratings in different sports to determine if the lines are accurate from his perspective, yet always follows the fundamentals when handicapping games.

Doug has been heard on various sports radio talk shows (Tony George Radio Show on Sirius radio the latest) around the country for years and never has a shortage of opinions. Plus, his Line Moves article is one of the most consistently viewed pieces among sports bettors on Facebook and Google Plus.

Doug has been writing articles for over a decade and doing videos nearly as long at several websites, which are among the most viewed in any particular week.

His articles have been in the New York Post.com, Sportsbookreview.com, RantSports.com, Covers.com, Playbook.com, Daily Racing Form, StatFox.com and Sportsbook.ag on a daily basis, along with being seen at many different websites on the internet and is pleased to become part of the ScoresandStats.com team also in various capacities.

He also does work on some of the most popular football newsletters in the country, something he has done since 2006.

Doug has had 21 No. 1 rankings at documented sports monitors in a multitude of sports and over 80 Top 10 finishes and consistently delivers HUGE profits.

 

Doug Upstone's Most Recent Top Awards

#1 2016 NFL at The Sports Eye

#1 2015 NFL at Cappers Monitor

#1 2014-15 NHL at Cappers Monitor, Cappers Watchdog & The Sports Eye

#1 2013-14 NHL at Cappers Monitor & The Sports Eye

#1 2014 NFL Playoffs at The Sports Eye Monitor

#1 2013 NFL at Cappers Monitor

#1 2013 NHL at Cappers Monitor, Cappers Watchdog & The Sports Eye

#1 2009-10 CBB at Cappers Monitor

#1 2009 MLB at The Sports Eye and Free Sports Monitor

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