This week we have a three-game slate of games on Thursday for Thanksgiving Day.
After dominating the LAR on MNF, the Ravens have the best point differential (+184) in the NFL. The only other teams with a point differential of +100 are the Patriots (+183) and 49ers (+169).
With the Thanksgiving Day games this week, there are no teams on a bye.
Previous Rankings: Week 11, Week 10, Week 9, Week 8, Week 7 , Week 6, Week 5, Week 4, Week 3, Week 2, Week 1, Preseason
Here are the latest NFL betting trends after week 12:
• Favorites: 11-3 SU and 7-7 ATS (Season: 112-63-1 SU and 76-96-4 ATS) • Favorites of 7 or more: 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS (Season: 40-6 SU and 23-22-1 ATS) • Favorites of 3 or less: 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS (Season: 27-25-1 SU and 23-28-2 ATS) • Home Underdogs: 2-3 SU and 2-3 ATS (Season: 20-39-1 SU and 29-31 ATS)
Flat betting every underdog this season has been profitable. Underdogs (96-76-4 ATS / 55.81%) are hitting at a good clip. Away dogs (67-45-4 ATS / 59.82%) have been even more profitable.
On the season, there have been 84 overs (47.73%) and 92 unders (52.27%).
SB LIV Odds: +6600 Record: 8-3 (7-3-1 ATS) Previous Rank: 6
The Bills have one of the best defenses in the NFL. They allow 15.7 PPG (3rd) and 288.6 YPG (3rd). They also have a solid run game (139.2 RYPG - 5th), which is a good recipe for success in the NFL.
SB LIV Odds: +100000 Record: 3-7-1 (7-3-1 ATS) Previous Rank: 5
The Cardinals are getting +4 points at home against LAR in week 13 after coming off a bye. Arizona are on a 4-game losing streak, but they’ve been great ATS and I like them as a live home dog.
SB LIV Odds: +275 Record: 10-1 (7-4 ATS) Previous Rank: 1
Should we be worried about the Patriots offense? That’s now two weeks in a row where the Pats have been held to 17 or fewer points. They won both games, though, as they have the #1 DEF (10.6 PPG).
SB LIV Odds: +550 Record: 9-2 (7-4 ATS) Previous Rank: 2
NO are coming off a win over CAR (34-31), but they failed to cover ATS. The OFF was great. NO now score an average of 24.7 PPG (9th), but they’re allowing teams to score 20.9 PPG (13th).
SB LIV Odds: +1400 Record: 8-3 (7-4 ATS) Previous Rank: 3
GB were coming off a bye, but came out completely flat against SF and were blown out (37-8). GB are allowing 380.5 YPG (28th) and they’ve been a bit lucky to only allow 22 PPG (14th).
SB LIV Odds: +2500 Record: 6-5 (7-4 ATS) Previous Rank: 7
The Cowboys are an intriguing team. They score 26.8 PPG (6th) and allow 19.1 PPG (7th), but they lack consistency on a week-to-week basis and you never know what to expect out of them.
SB LIV Odds: +12500 Record: 6-5 (7-4 ATS) Previous Rank: 4
I thought the Rams would keep it close with BAL on MNF, but they were blown out (45-6). Apart from two games against ARI, the schedule is tough for LAR down the stretch and I’m fading them.
SB LIV Odds: +6600 Record: 6-5 (7-4 ATS) Previous Rank: 9
It looks like Rudolph is out and Hodges is in at QB for PIT. It’s a chance they need to make now. The DEF is only allowing 19.3 PPG (8th), while ranking #3 in sacks (3.5 SPG), but the OFF has been a mess.
SB LIV Odds: +550 Record: 10-1 (6-4-1 ATS) Previous Rank: 11
It’s good to see Jimmy G finding his stride. While the Niners would be wise to lean on the run game (145.6 RYPG - 2nd), the 49ers will need Jimmy G playing well when it comes time for the playoffs.
SB LIV Odds: +7500 Record: 6-5 (6-4-1 ATS) Previous Rank: 12
The Colts lost on TNF to the Texans (20-17), but covered as dogs. Indy have leaned on a solid running game (144.2 RYPG - 3rd), but they only average 195.3 PYPG (28th) and need Brissett to improve.
SB LIV Odds: +375 Record: 9-2 (6-5 ATS) Previous Rank: 15
Jackson completed 15/20 passes in a win over LAR. Five of those completions went for TDs. He also gained 95 rushing yards on 8 carries. If he continues playing like this he should be the MVP.
SB LIV Odds: +1000 Record: 9-2 (6-5 ATS) Previous Rank: 16
Seattle rank #3 in turnover differential (+9), but only average 2.1 SPG (27th). The offense is averaging 26.5 PPG (7th) and 385.4 YPG (5th). This team can beat you on both sides of the football.
SB LIV Odds: +2000 Record: 8-3 (6-5 ATS) Previous Rank: 13
The Vikes are in good shape to make the playoffs in the NFC, but they need more production out of Cousins in the pass game (236.2 PYPG - 15th). It’s not like the Vikes lack weapons in the pass game.
SB LIV Odds: +1000 Record: 7-4 (6-5 ATS) Previous Rank: 14
It looks like Hill will play this week after recovering during KC’s bye week. The OFF is averaging 28 PPG (4th) and 396.1 YPG (3rd), but like in years past, the DEF (23.3 PPG - 19th) isn’t as good.
SB LIV Odds: +10000 Record: 6-5 (6-5 ATS) Previous Rank: 8
Just when it looked like the Raiders had turned a corner with three wins in a row, they were blown out in W12 against the lowly Jets (34-3). Carr looked terrible and was replaced by Glennon in the 2H.
SB LIV Odds: +15000 Record: 5-6 (6-5 ATS) Previous Rank: 18
Carolina rank #2 in sacks (3.7 SPG), but the DEF allows 26.5 PPG (26th) and 367.1 YPG (19th). CMC has continued to put up insane numbers and he did just enough for the Panthers to cover in W12.
SB LIV Odds: +75000 Record: 3-8 (6-5 ATS) Previous Rank: 10
The Broncos OFF couldn’t get anything going in a loss to the Bills (20-3). The OFF is scoring 15.9 PPG (29th), while the DEF allows 19.7 PPG (9th). Until the Broncos find a QB they’ll continue to struggle.
SB LIV Odds: +8000 Record: 6-5 (5-5-1 ATS) Previous Rank: 21
Tannehill didn’t need to do much in a win over the Jags (42-20), but he did what was required. TEN rushed for 219 yards and 4 TDs in W12. I’m sure the Titans wish they started Tannehill all season.
SB LIV Odds: +2800 Record: 7-4 (5-6 ATS) Previous Rank: 17
Houston have a top 10 OFF that averages 24.1 PPG (10th) and 381.6 YPG (7th). However, the DEF isn’t on the same level and injuries haven’t helped. HOU rank #29 in sacks (2 SPG) this season.
SB LIV Odds: +50000 Record: 4-7 (5-6 ATS) Previous Rank: 25
The Jets have won three games in a row, albeit against weaker competition. The good news is they play the Bengals and Dolphins the next two weeks, so the win streak is likely to continue.
SB LIV Odds: +50000 Record: 4-7 (5-6 ATS) Previous Rank: 19
The Jags have been blown out in three consecutive games. Foles isn’t getting it done since coming back from injury and while Minshew has struggled, he’s young and needs time to develop.
SB LIV Odds: +500000 Record: 2-9 (5-6 ATS) Previous Rank: 20
Miami is terrible. On OFF they average 14.8 PPG (30th) and 264.9 YPG (30th), while on DEF they allow 31.5 PPG (32nd) and 400.9 YPG (30th). There’s little reason to bet on the Dolphins.
SB LIV Odds: +7500 Record: 5-6 (4-6-1 ATS) Previous Rank: 27
The Browns have won three in a row and have an outside chance at making the playoffs if they can win four of their last five games. I’m sure the Browns will find a way to implode, though.
SB LIV Odds: +4000 Record: 5-6 (4-7 ATS) Previous Rank: 22
The Eagles have to win their next three games against MIA, NYG and WAS. That would set-up a big game against the Cowboys. One concern is the Eagles rank #24 in TO differential (24th).
SB LIV Odds: +50000 Record: 3-8 (4-7 ATS) Previous Rank: 24
ATL rank #27 in TO differential (-8), #28 in points against (27 PPG) and #26 in yards allowed (376.3 YPG). They were defeated by the Bucs (35-22) as favs in W12, snapping a 2-game win streak.
SB LIV Odds: +200000 Record: 2-9 (4-7 ATS) Previous Rank: 31
I’ll bump the Redskins up a bit after defeating the Lions. However, the Redskins are terrible. Haskins struggled in the win. He completed 13/29 passes for 156 yards and 1 INT. He also lost a fumble.
SB LIV Odds: +75000 Record: 3-7-1 (4-7 ATS) Previous Rank: 23
Driskel threw 3 INTs in a loss to WAS (19-16). Detroit have lost four games in a row and I’ll be fading them for as long as Stafford is out. Driskel is also banged up and won’t be 100% this week.
SB LIV Odds: +100000 Record: 2-9 (4-7 ATS) Previous Rank: 30
The Giants lost their 7th game in a row, but they covered in a loss to CHI (19-14). Jones wasn’t bad in the loss, but the Giants are a fade with games coming up against GB and PHI.
SB LIV Odds: N/A Record: 0-11 (4-7 ATS) Previous Rank: 26
The winless Bengals are fighting hard on DEF, but the OFF has been terrible. Dalton will be back at QB this week, as the Finley experiment is already over. Cincy will look to draft a QB.
SB LIV Odds: +15000 Record: 4-7 (3-6-2 ATS) Previous Rank: 28
Rivers has 16 TOs this season, which ranks third in the league. The big question in LA right now is whether or not Rivers will be back next season, as this season is a lost cause already.
SB LIV Odds: +20000 Record: 5-6 (3-8 ATS) Previous Rank: 29
CHI won in W12 because of their DEF. They rank #4 in points against (17.1 PPG) and yards against (315.6 YPG). The OFF continues to struggle, but I like the Bears ATS this week in Detroit.
SB LIV Odds: +50000 Record: 4-7 (3-8 ATS) Previous Rank: 32
Winston threw 2 more INTs and now has 20 INTs this season, six more than the next QB (Rivers 14). TB dominated ATL in W12, but this isn’t a team you want to bet on down the stretch.
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