NFL Week 2 - Over Reactive Betting Lines

Contrary to popular public belief, a season is not won or lost in one week. Sure, it most likely gave us a nice snapshot of how most teams will perform this season, but without a doubt, a couple teams that looked good or bad will not be THAT good or bad all season. If you can figure out which teams will look different in Week 2, that is where you butter your bread.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons | Line: Falcons -6

This line seems like a sucker bet to me and has me wondering what I am missing. Both the Falcons and Eagles were extremely flat in the opener last Thursday, and I’m going to chalk that up to an anomaly, but the bottom line is the Falcons did not look very good.

Their offense looked exactly like they did when they lost to the Eagles, playing them in consecutive games. Although the Eagles D may end up being on top of a lot of team defense categories in 2018, they held the Falcons to 74 yards on only 18 carries, a team with a dual-threat in the backfield. The Falcon offense was supposed to have taken a step forward, it’s second with Steve Sarkisian as the offensive coordinator but looks to be spinning its wheels.

The offense isn’t even the biggest issue after Atlanta lost arguably their top two players on defense. Safety Keanu Neal is done for the year with an ACL, and one of the top linebackers in the league, Deion Jones, was placed on IR-designated to return with a foot injury.

On the other side of the field, the Panthers had a tough go against the Cowboys last week, although they did pull out a 16-8 win. The Cowboy defense is better than most are giving credit for, and the Panthers have a legitimate chance of making the playoffs again this season.

Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints | Line: Saints -9

Last week, the Saints lost SU as the largest favorite of the week (10.5) to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Browns were bet lower at close, but they opened as a 7-point home dog only to tie the Steelers. I wasn’t one who was riding the Browns train prior to the season, although their Hard Knocks was very entertaining, but this team has some fight in them and most likely should not be a 9-point dog.

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There are some things to look at such as the Saints getting embarrassed last week, they are at home and the Saints cannot be as bad on defense as they looked. Drew Brees and company looked unstoppable, but if Marshon Lattimore and the rest of the D can’t stop the big plays, even these Saints can’t score enough.

Oh, one more thing…the Browns are 4-1 both straight up and against the spread in the five games between these two since 1999. The total is currently at 49.5, with a good possibility the Saints score 35 or more on their own.

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers | Line: 49ers -6

If someone told you last week that the 49ers would be a 6-point favorite when they host the Lions in Week 2, would you have said they were crazy? Most likely right. Football fans have already wrote-off Matt Patricia’s coaching career, and are saying the Lions have majorly regressed, evidenced by them being a 6-point dog to the 49ers.

The 49ers have made some good moves, but injury and suspension have seen them get pretty depleted, especially if #1 WR Marquise Goodwin isn’t able to get over his leg injury. The Lions barely missed the playoffs last season and looked to get better in the offseason, so to me this is a case of a mistaken identity.

The 49ers are still a year or two from being a legitimate threat, and there’s no way that Lions D is as bad as they looked against Sam Darnold and the Jets. I believe this one might be the biggest overreactive betting line for NFL Week 2. I see the Lions moneyline at +212, and leading up to kickoff I will be following this one closely.

Keep an eye on the line movements as we get closer to Sunday. We all know the public are over reactors, and I am willing to bet multiple lines will move in a direction that will benefit the smart bettor. Stay with us all year where we will help you find value in the lines.

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