The 2019 NFL draft is complete and the 2019-2020 schedules are out. While there is likely to be a lot of roster movement prior to the regular season, we have a good idea of how each team is constructed and therefore now is a great time to bet on 2020 Super Bowl futures.
One of the reasons you want to place your futures bets sooner rather than later is due to the futures odds generally declining on the top contenders as the season gets closer.
2020 NFL Super Bowl Top Contenders
New England Patriots (8/1) are the obvious market leader after winning this year. NE has now played in the last three Super Bowls - winning two of them (2019 and 2017).
The Patriots are tied for the second easiest strength of schedule (SOS) and while I expect the AFC East to be stronger, the Patriots will win the division for the 11th consecutive year.
I don’t like the value on NE, though, and that’s because of the offense. Tom Brady is back, but he’s a year older and will be without his #1 TE, as Rob Gronkowski has retired. He has limited weapons and 1st round pick N’Keal Harry isn’t going to turn into Randy Moss.
The Kansas City Chiefs (10/1), New Orleans Saints (10/1) and LA Rams (10/1) are all priced at 10/1 odds. First off, I would eliminate the Chiefs from your contender's list. Kareem Hunt is gone, Tyreek Hill has been suspended for off-field issues and teams will now have film on Patrick Mahomes and I expect every defense to be looking to shut him down this season.
The Saints and Rams both went 13-3 last regular season and won their respective divisions in the NFC. They met in the NFC Championship and the game ended on a bad note due to a blatant missed pass interference call. Both teams are bringing back most of the guys they had last season and they’re the two teams to beat in the NFC in 2019-20.
Next up are the Cleveland Browns (14/1), Philadelphia Eagles (14/1) and LA Chargers (14/1) in the Super Bowl futures market. The Browns added Odell Beckham Jr., among other players this off-season, but I can’t bet on them winning it all yet. The Chargers always seem to be a great regular season with Philip Rivers, but they don’t win in the playoffs.
I like the Eagles at this price, but for them to compete they need Carson Wentz to remain healthy all season. Nick Foles is gone and the QB position is now thin in Philly, but they are certainly capable of contending if the team can remain healthy in a weak NFC East.
The Chicago Bears (16/1) and Indianapolis Colts (16/1) are the last two teams priced at less than 20/1 odds to win the 2020 Super Bowl. I like both of these teams this year. Both teams made the playoffs last season, both teams have great QBs and both defenses are strong.
Chicago lacked picks in the draft but may have found a stud RB in David Montgomery out of Iowa State. Jordan Howards is gone, but Montgomery should replace his production. I also expect the #1 defense from last season to improve upon the numbers they posted, which is a scary proposition, as they already had the best passing and rushing defense.
? My Best Bet to Win the 2020 NFL Super Bowl: Chicago Bears 16/1
Best Value in the 2020 NFL Super Bowl Futures Market
The best value bet is the Jacksonville Jaguars (33/1). The Jaguars finished 5-11 last season and were last in the AFC South, but a lot of that is due to Blake Bortles. The team had lost all confidence in him, so they went out and signed Foles. Some people forget the Jaguars had one of the best defenses last season and now the offense should at least be average.
Jacksonville still lacks an elite WR, but if Leonard Fournette can stay healthy, the run game will take the pressure off of Foles. If the Jaguars can get into the playoffs, we all know how well Foles is capable of performing in short stretches with everything on the line.