With the 2019 NFL season approaching quickly, it’s time to take a look at some of the more intriguing futures bets. You’ll find numerous online sportsbooks with odds on which quarterback will lead the league in passing. Today, we take it one step further and examine which signal-callers are most likely to pass for over 4,500 yards this season.

Over the past five seasons, an average of four quarterbacks per year has topped the 4,500-yard mark. Last season – and in 2014 and ’15 – a full five quarterbacks reached the milestone. There are a few recognizable names that frequent this list – Drew Brees anyone? But which ones will hit the 4,500-yard mark this season?

Odds and Prediction to Win the NFC East

MATT RYAN – ATLANTA, OVER 4575.5 20/27

Ryan has passed for over 4,500 yards in four of the past five seasons. The only year he didn’t hit the 4,500-yard mark was 2016. Instead of hitting the mark, Ryan passed for a mere 4,095 yards, a career-high 38 touchdowns, and won the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award.

If there is a given to hit 4,500 yards, it’s Ryan. He has hit the mark six times in his 11-year career. If you take out his first three NFL seasons (you know the ones where he was getting acclimated to the league), that number drops to six in eight seasons. Again taking out those first three seasons, Ryan is averaging 4,582 yards passing over the past eight seasons.

Ryan still has one of the best wide receivers in the game in Julio Jones. Calvin Ridley is another upper-tier receiver and Mohammed Sanu is a capable No. 3. The Falcons running game will have Devonta Freeman back from injury, but make no mistake. Atlanta’s offense begins and ends with Ryan.


After missing all of 2017, Luck returned in 2018 to win the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year award. He completed a career-high 67.3 percent of his passes for 4,593 yards and 39 touchdowns. He helped return the Colts to the postseason in the process.

He’ll have WR T.Y. Hilton (76 rec., 1,270 yds. in 2018) back as well as newly acquired Devin Funchess. In the five seasons in which Luck has played at least 15 games, he has topped 4,000 yards in all but one and went over 4,500 twice. The Colts drafted well and are on the rise. PREDICTION: Luck will enjoy another 4,500-yard season in 2019.


All Mahomes did in his first season as the Chiefs’ starter was lead the team to the AFC title game, earn a Pro Bowl slot, capture the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year, and win the league’s MVP. The big question for Mahomes in 2019 is simply “Can he do it again?”

Mahomes became just the second quarterback (Peyton Manning was the other) to throw for over 5,000 yards and at least 50 touchdowns in the same season. Mahomes totaled 5,097 passing yards and 50 scoring throws. There doesn’t seem to be anything slowing the Chiefs offense down. Head coach Andy Reid and his creative mind returns as does All-Pro TE Travis Kelce. While the status of WR Tyreek Hill is unknown, Kansas City drafted what could be Hill’s heir apparent in Georgia’s Mecole Hardman. Barring injury, Mahomes passes the 4,500-yard mark again in 2019.

NFL Futures Bets – Who Wins the Defensive Player of the Year Award?


Looking for that surprise pick? Mayfield took over as the Browns starting quarterback early in the season and went on to start 13 games. He averaged 286.5 passing yards per game. Guess what that translates to over a 16-game season? Yep, 4,584 yards.

This year, Mayfield gets to do it with one of the best wide receivers in the game – Odell Beckham Jr. Cleveland traded for OBJ in the offseason and the move elevates the Browns offense into one of the ones to watch in 2019. With the likes of WR Jarvis Landry, RB Nick Chubb, and newly acquired RB Kareem Hunt; the Browns offense should be very exciting. Translation: Mayfield throws for 4,500-plus.


The typical offshore sportsbook likes the Rams’ Jared Goff to go over 4475.5 yard at 5/6 odds. And yes, Goff plays in head coach Sean McVay’s highly proficient offense, but the fifth quarterback I like even better is last year’s NFL passing leader, Ben Roethlisberger.

All the news out of Pittsburgh revolves around the trade of WR Antonio Brown and former Steelers RB Le’Veon Bell signing with the New York Jets. What many might forget is Roethlisberger still has WR JuJu Smith-Schuster who was the Steelers leading receiver last season. There is also RB James Conner, who if he’s stays healthy, can produce just like Bell.

Roethlisberger has only hit the 4,500-yard plateau twice in his 15-year career, but the Steelers offense revolves around Big Ben’s ability to throw the football. Last year, the Steeler QB launched a career-high 675 pass attempts. Expect more of the same in 2019 and another 4,500-yard-plus season.

About the Author

A native of Western Pennsylvania, Rick, a Generation X-er, who now lives just north of the Motor City, Detroit, Michigan. A former high school, college, and professional football player, Rick now spends his time as a high school coach and as a personal quarterback trainer. An all-state high school quarterback, he went on to become an Academic All-American at Division II Indiana University of PA. He later coached at his alma mater helping lead the program to the 1990 NCAA Division II national championship game. Rick has also served as a high school head coach and as an assistant in Pennsylvania, New York, and Michigan.

His passion for sports writing started when he was the sports editor for his high school newspaper and continued when he worked as a sportswriter for the Jamestown (New York) Post-Journal in the early 1990s. A true sports fanatic, Rick enjoys all things Pittsburgh: Steelers, Pirates, and Penguins. The Immaculate Reception, the 1979 We Are Family Pirates, and the ’91-’92 Penguins are among his favorites. After working as an educator and athletic director for several years, he again took up sports writing and has contributed to several websites and publications, including Coach & Player magazine, X & O Labs, American Football Monthly, and many others.

When not consumed with coaching, watching, thinking about, or writing about football and other seasonal sports, he finds himself working out like he was still in college and reading everything from military history to Brad Thor novels. Rick has also been chasing rock god stardom as a drummer who has played with bands that have opened for the likes of Fuel, Days of the New, and Alien Ant Farm. He continues to play with his church worship group. Most importantly, Rick is married to the love of his life, Lisa, and has two beautiful daughters.

Comment about top 5 quarterbacks to pass for over 4500 yards in 2019 odds