College Football's Top Underdogs - Championship Week
by Doug Upstone Scores & Statson
Officially here we were 2-2-1, taking our record to 32-31-2 ATS. However, part of being a smart handicapper is understanding numbers and having patience. This article has been posted on Wednesday's all season, but the actual wagers are placed over a variety of times.
For example, Marshall had been flipped from an underdog to a favorite since it was a 4.5-point swing to -2.5. We waited to see if the line would go to -3 and it did. That converted a loss on Wednesday here to a Push for this handicapper. The same was true of Arizona, who was +1 on Hump Day and climbed to +2.5 briefly on Thursday, before settling in at +2 against Arizona State. At ScoresandStats.com we ended up with a Push on that game but took home a winner.
This type of thinking is why this author is No.6 this season at Cappers Monitor in college football this season.
#307 UAB (+1.5) at #308 Middle Tennessee UAB was going to play for the Conference USA title no matter what and gave a non-effort in gaining 89 total yards at Middle Tennessee in 27-3 drubbing. The Blue Raiders won and when FIU lost, they won the East Division and became the host for the title tilt. Talk about your quick turnarounds and if the Blazers don't come to play, the same result will happen. But we really like coach Bill Clark, who has resurrected a football program literally from the dead. UAB was the best team in C-USA all season and with a chance to do the impossible, the Blazers step up, get revenge and win on the road.
#311 Texas (+7.5) vs. #312 Oklahoma The last five games between these bitter rivals have been determined by seven or fewer points. Texas won the first game which is why many football bettors will be backing Oklahoma thinking about revenge. But as good as the Sooners high-scoring offense is, the defense has conceded 47.2 PPG in their last four tries and are 0-3-1 ATS in the process. And let's not forget about Texas coach Tom Herman who is 13-1 ATS as an underdog, which includes 10 outright upsets. Oklahoma might well win the Big 12 title, but it will be by the skin of their teeth yet again.
#317 Fresno State (+2.5) at #318 Boise State Talk about knowing one another! This will be the fourth time these two Mountain West rivals will do battle in less than 53 weeks. The home team has won each time, covering twice. What has caught our attention is the oddsmakers line. In the game back in early November, Boise State, who normally gives four points for playing on the blue turf, was a two-point home underdog to Fresno State and won 17-14. Four weeks later the Broncos are -2.5, which is rather a large line movement, yet, still below what Boise State regularly is at home. With Fresno State 19-6 ATS the last two years and 6-0 ATS as an underdog, the Bulldogs will be your Mountain West champs as the winner!
#321 Northwestern (+14) vs. #322 Ohio State Ohio State played their best game of the season in mauling Michigan 62-39. While the Buckeyes were certainly domineering, they also allowed 395 or more yards for the ninth time this season. Though this game will be for the Big Ten championship and at worst a trip to the Rose Bowl for Ohio State, do you really think they will be anywhere near fever pitch again? Just think about Notre Dame who was jacked for Syracuse, but played a flat game versus USC, a main rival a week later and failed to cover. Northwestern has absolutely nothing to lose in this matchup and coach Pat Fitzgerald is 13-2-1 ATS as an underdog of late and has won games like this 10 on occasions. Ohio State wins but by 10 or less.
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