College Football's Top Underdogs - Week 11 of Upset Possibilities
by Doug Upstone Scores & Statson
After a series of winning weeks playing the pooches, we were 2-3 ATS last week, moving our season record to 27-23 ATS. This week we have four road underdogs on the docket, two which are catching double digits. Plus, a home dog facing a highly ranked team.
All odds courtesy of
#121 Clemson at #122 Boston College (+20) Clemson heads Chestnut Hill with as the second-best team in the country and they have not been tested since Syracuse game, outscoring the opposition by a ridiculous 240-36. Clemson has no real weakness other than the running game sputtering from time to time. Boston College could provide a unique challenge because they are as physical as the Tigers and its offense is not just built around power football anymore, adding speed at receiver and being able to get outside the tackles to generate plays on the edge. This season the Eagles are an impressive 7-2 SU and ATS. There is little chance B.C. could pull off a major upset, but the Eagles could hang around the spread. If they can control the clock similar to what Syracuse did, that would help their case and this underdog is 10-2 ATS playing against teams with a win percentage of 75% or higher.
#149 North Carolina (+10.5) at #150 Duke Duke is 6-3 on the season but three of those setbacks have occurred in the Blue Devils past five games. Duke has been out-gained in each of their past five outings and that is seldom a mark of a team that is going to cover 10 or more points. North Carolina is hardly a charming proposition at 1-7 and 3-4 ATS. However, being just eight miles from Durham, the Tar Heels do bring some positives. Namely, they are 9-1 ATS after five or more consecutive losses and 5-1 ATS as an underdog. The Heels are also 11-2 SU at Duke and 6-0 ATS after allowing 31 points or more in three games in a row.
#153 Northwestern (+10.5) at #154 Iowa Iowa was in position to beat both Penn State and Purdue on the road and failed to do so. That left them two games behind first-place Northwestern in the Big Ten West Division and giving them almost no hope of reaching the conference title game. While we expect the Hawkeyes to be geared up back at Iowa City, the passion is not likely to sustain with little to play for. Northwestern has everything to play for and they hold the tie-breakers over Wisconsin and Purdue, their closest competitors. The Wildcats are in their best role, a road underdog. The 'Cats are 28-15 ATS as a road dog catching and 7-0 ATS in away games after gaining 3.75 or fewer yards a play in their previous contest.
#161 Oregon (+3.5) at #162 Utah Utah just cannot handle football success. After winning and covering four in a row to take control of the Pac-12 South, the Utes lost 38-20 at Arizona State. Utah can still win the division, but now they will have to try to do without their starting quarterback Tyler Huntley who broke his collarbone. Oregon has made strides this season but is nowhere close to what they were when they were a national power. Nonetheless, they still have offensive firepower and if they can get their athletes the ball, they could force Utah to play catch-up with a backup quarterback. Don't be shocked it the Ducks waddle away with a victory.
#193 South Carolina (+6.5) at #194 Florida After losing to Georgia, Florida was primed to finish 10-2 and play in a New Year's Day bowl. Evidently, they did not know they actually had to play and win those games to accomplish that, as they were mauled by Missouri in Gainesville 38-17. The Gators lack strong quarterback play and dangerous playmakers. Their defensive front seven is smallish and looks to be wearing down. South Carolina's last four contests have been decided by 12 total points and the Gamecocks have won three of them. At this juncture, South Carolina players believe they can stay in any contest and Florida is 2-12 ATS after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games.
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