College Football's Top Underdogs - Week 2 of Upset Possibilities
by Doug Upstone Scores & Statson
With a week under our belts of college football, we have a bit more information to work with. This is important since data is the lifeblood of finding winners and being able to spot trouble or opportunity.
The Week 1 results should be viewed on two levels, first, don't go overboard based on the results. However, the second point is just as important for a longer view. Right down the teams who had surprising results from the opening weekend, put them in a calendar or someplace where you would be reminded to review later. Look at each team and see what has changed in that five-week period. Did those Week 1 results prove a team was over or underrated coming into the season? Or was their first contest an anomaly and they have shown to be who we thought they were.
This week are backing three tried and true underdogs, one situational pooch and one that could be underrated.
9/8 - #311 Appalachian State at #312 Charlotte (+14) - Appalachian State was - this close - to beating Penn State and they would have been the only group happy leaving Happy Valley. But the Nittany Lions tied the game and won in OT. This could result in a flat spot for the Mountaineers who clearly have the better squad. Charlotte has 18 starters back and if they could engineer an upset, they could bring attention to their program. Home teams like the 49ers in the first two weeks of the year, after closing out last season with three or more straight losses, returning 8+ offensive starters, against opponent returning five or less defensive starters, are on a 22-3 ATS roll.
9/8 - #317 Air Force (+9) at #318 Florida Atlantic - Lane Kiffin's FAU crew was humbled at Oklahoma and needs to deliver a superior effort. But Air Force is not just any road underdog and in recent years, they have covered the spread at Michigan, Michigan State, and Boise State. Those places are far more intimating and the Falcons are 7-2 ATS the last few years catching points.
9/8 - #323 Mississippi State at #324 Kansas State (+9.5) - Kansas State barely escaped against South Dakota last Saturday, winning 27-24 as 23.5-point home favorites. With this, the money has come in on a very good Mississippi State club that's now a 9.5-point road favorite. However, the Wildcats hurt themselves with a -4 turnover difference and they usually clean that mess up the following week. Just remember, K-State is 21-9 ATS as a home underdog and 23-6 ATS in the Little Apple after they committed three or more turnovers.
9/8 - #339 Memphis at #340 Navy (+6.5) - If Navy's defense could not contain Hawai'i's offense (they surrendered 59 points), what chance would they have against high-powered Memphis? The Midshipmen rarely have two clunkers in a row and coach Ken Niumatalolo has been great at getting his team's attention right away and is 14-3 ATS after scoring and allowing 30 points or more in their last outing. There is nothing really bad to say about Memphis, other than the fact they are 4-14 ATS after scoring 50 points or more last game. Memphis might win, just by four or less.
9/8 - #347 Georgia at #348 South Carolina (+10.5) - Let's face it, betting against Georgia is not a particularly wise move these days. Yet, this South Carolina crew has a bit of an edge about them and coming into the season and they were a spotlight team that might be taking flight this season. The Gamecocks have a good offensive unit and coach Will Muschamp always has the defense ready to go. Not calling for the outright upset, just like the 'Cocks as 9-4-1 ATS home roosters.