College Football's Top Underdogs - Week 6 of Upset Possibilities
by Doug Upstone Scores & Statson
After starting the season with a trio of 2-3 records on are upset picks, we finally had a winning week and last Saturday we swept the board at 5-0. While we are not expecting that kind of results every week, we have collected enough data at this point and with conference play, we anticipate more wins than losses going forward.
All odds courtesy of
#311 Utah State (+3) at #312 BYU While the "Holy War" receives and deserves most of the attention as the rivalry in the state of Utah, don't sell this one short, especially for Utah State. The Aggies are a lot like other schools in other states, down the list of where recruits want to play. Annually, they have players that thought they were more than good enough to play at BYU or Utah but were passed over. Utah State has more than enough offense to give the Cougars a hard time at 51.5 PPG, with BYU checking in at 21.4 PPG. With Utah State 10-5 ATS against their state rivals, expect them to cash.
#327 Old Dominion (+14) at #328 Florida Atlantic Old Dominion might have only won once this season, but it was a beauty, upsetting Virginia Tech 49-35. Other than their opening game dud versus Liberty, the Monarchs have been competitive in defeat, with the three other setbacks by only 13 points. Because ODU has scored 32.5 PPG in their past four outings, they have a chance to cover. Florida Atlantic has underachieved against the oddsmakers market at 0-5 ATS this season. While the Owls have more speed and overall talent, they have not played that way. Look for Old Dominion to keep this around 10 points.
#333 LSU at #334 Florida (+2.5) These are not the friendliest of SEC rivals, who because of Hurricane Mathew forcing Florida to give up a home game against LSU, they had a standoff and each blamed other in 2016. The Gators were forced to play that home game in Baton Rouge, which is why they are facing the Tigers in Gainesville two straight years. LSU has been a surprise this season at 5-0 and does have edges over Florida. Namely, the Tigers offensive line can move the lighter Florida defense and the Gators offense is spotty. But Dan Mullen has covered four in a row over LSU dating back to his Mississippi State days and he has a recipe to frustrate the Bengal Tigers. Watch the Gators end LSU's winning streak.
#369 California at #370 Arizona (+3) Arizona was actually released by sportsbooks as a two-point favorite but was turned around to home underdogs. This was surprising considering last week California was on many sharp bettors card as a dog against Oregon and they lost 42-24. Here are three aspects to remember about this confrontation. The Golden Bears are 13-34 ATS as a road favorite and when you drill down further they are 0-9 ATS in that role when the number is -3 or lower. Lastly, they are 1-7 SU in their last eight visits to Tucson.
#397 Oklahoma vs. #398 Texas (+7) Nothing to quibble about in understanding who is the stronger team, it's Oklahoma. But this is not breaking news as the Sooners have been an -8.5 to -16.5 points favorite each of the past five years in the Red River Rivalry and failed to cover the spread each time, losing twice. This Texas team is still not the most stable mentally, sometimes lacking confidence, other times playing too overconfident. This Longhorns squad has risen to the moment in their two biggest challenges, USC and TCU and won both games. Not forecasting a "W" for the Horns, but they are 7-0 ATS vs. teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards per attempt.