College Football's Top Underdogs - Week 9 of Upset Possibilities
by Doug Upstone Scores & Statson
Last week we returned to our winning ways and took our record to 22-18 ATS. This week with so many early games, two stood out on Friday and we gladly grabbed them both for our college football picks supports underdogs. This plus what we hope is a trio of winners on Saturday!
All odds courtesy of
#115 Miami-FL at #116 Boston College (+3.5) (Friday) Both these ACC squads are 5-2 and the winner stays in the chase to win a division title with future conference games ahead. This matchup is your classic - power vs. speed - confrontation, with a couple twists. Miami has the overall speed edge, but not as much on defense as usual, as Boston College has gone away from their plodding offensive style to more explosive methods and generating big plays. The Eagles are also not the better defensive team like in past years. Being able to get the hook without buying is a plus. Here is the key situational play: Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like the Hurricanes, who are off a close road loss by three points or less, with a winning record on the season, playing another winning team, are 13-39 ATS since 1992.
#131 Louisiana Tech (+3.5) at #132 Florida Atlantic (Friday) Lane Kiffin was more than happy to take all the credit for winning C-USA championship in his first year at Florida Atlantic. The assumption was he could take all the leftovers in fertile Florida market of football players and have great success. This year, with the offensive talent down a bit, FAU has not been nearly as strong as 3-4 record shows and even with that, they are well below market expectations at 1-6 ATS. Give Skip Holtz some points in almost any game and he turns into money for backers. A case could be made Holtz's Louisiana Tech squad is the better team, besides the fact the Bulldogs are 5-2 (4-3 ATS). With Holtz 32-15 ATS a road underdog in his career, we will take the points and make a side that Louisiana Tech winning outright.
#167 Georgia vs. #168 Florida (+7) Though it is no longer socially acceptable to call Florida vs. Georgia the "World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party", we are fine with it and accept tradition. Georgia is back in action after suffering their first loss of the season at LSU. Since losing to Kentucky in their SEC opener, Florida is 5-0 SU and ATS, as the players have bought into new HC Dan Mullen's teachings. In this series, when one team is off consecutive victories like Florida, they are 15-3 ATS. Last season the Gators were tossed back in the swamp, losing 42-7 to Georgia and are out for revenge. Know this, when favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Georgia are off a game where they committed 4 or more turnovers, against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse, they are 11-37 ATS.
#185 Iowa (+6.5) at #186 Penn State Maybe it will turn out differently, but Penn State is laboring, particularly on defense. The Nittany Lions could not hold a two-score lead at home against Ohio State. The following week they again failed at home versus an overrated Michigan State squad and last week they permitted 28 points and 554 yards to a so-so Indiana bunch in a victory. Iowa is Iowa, they show up every week and stop the run and have enough offense to keep things close. It might be best to wait to see if you can grab the Hawkeyes at +7, but either way, Iowa is 19-5 ATS vs. teams scoring 37 or more points a game.
#207 Navy (+20.5) vs. #208 Notre Dame The path has been cleared for Notre Dame to reach the playoffs, now it is up to them to finish it off. Off a bye week, the Fighting Irish will tackle Navy, who almost always give them trouble. This is not the same quality of Midshipmen team we are used to seeing, nonetheless, the Middies always come ready to play 60 minutes against the Irish. To that point, here is what we mean, Notre Dame is 21-4 SU against the Navy since Kriss Kross sang "Jump" (1992), yet they are only 8-17 ATS. The Irish win, but just by 17.
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