2018-2019 Scores&Stats NFL Betting Power Rankings: Week 11
by Doug Upstone Scores & Statson
It was another wild week of NFL action as only three favorites ended up covering spreads. With the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, we have 15 games to choose from. Our Top 3 teams in the Power Ratings remain unchanged.
Favorites: 9-4 SU and 3-6-3 ATS (Season: 91-52-2 SU and 67-80-8 ATS) Favorite of 7 or more: 1-1 SU and 1-1 ATS (Season: 32-8 SU and 20-19-1 ATS) Favorites of 3 or less: 5-0 SU and 1-1-3 ATS (Season: 31-27-2 SU and 23-31-6 ATS) Home Underdogs: 1-2 SU and 1-1-1 ATS (Season: 18-20-2 SU and 24-15-1 ATS) Pick Games: Home team 4-2 ATS
This all leads to our score-based Power Ratings, which we introduced this season. These type of ratings are based not only on records but on how teams did against the point spread, which gives us a broader view when it comes to understanding the strengths of a team when making lines.
Here are this week's ranking and team updates. Your comments are always welcome.
Odds:+325 Record: 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS Last Week's Rank: 1st
The Saints are like a semi-truck heading down the side of mountain highway and it would be foolish to try to bet against even if they are giving an abnormal amount of points to Atlanta. Oddsmakers are tired of losing to New Orleans and are forcing bettors to choose with higher spreads.
Odds:+1400 Record: 7-3 SU and 5-5 ATS Last Week's Rank: 6th
A very disappointing loss for the Chargers who had no excuse coming off a bye and playing at home against an AFC West rival. Winning against Arizona should not be an issue, covering a big number might be.
Odds:+2000 Record: 7-3 SU and 4-5-1 ATS Last Week's Rank: 11th
Despite winning seven straight, there are still doubts about the Texans because there spread record in below .500. Houston can prove they are more for real than imagined with a win and cover over Tennessee at home on Monday night.
Odds:+2000 Record: 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS Last Week's Rank: 12th
Baltimore was ultra-conservative with Lamar Jackson starting for an injured Joe Flacco, but they got the win over Cincinnati. The Ravens will look to make two in a row when Oakland hits town off there "big win".
Odds:+4000 Record: 5-5 SU and 6-4 ATS Last Week's Rank: 19th
The Colts being on a four-game winning streak this season (3-0-1 ATS) was about as likely as another Rolling Stones tour coming to the US. (Both are true) Andrew Luck is en Fuego and they will look to make it five in a row and further move up our power ratings.
Odds:+6600 Record: 5-5 SU and 6-4 ATS Last Week's Rank: 13th
Tennessee was neither mentally or physically prepared to face Indianapolis and got hammered. Marcus Mariota hurt his elbow again, so watch for reports to see if he will be playing this week and how close to 100 percent he is. That could be the deciding factor on taking the Titans or not.
Odds:+15000 Record: 4-6 SU and 6-4 ATS Last Week's Rank: 20th
Detroit is about impossible to predict this year, being either good or bad. That has also been the case on Thanksgiving, as sometimes we see the good Lions or other times the really awful Lions. We might see the former, since they will open turkey day having lost to Chicago 11 days ago.
Odds:+6600 Record: 4-6 and 3-7 ATS Last Week's Rank: 15th
The Eagles are all but dead unless something miraculous happens. Philadelphia has no way to stop an opposing quarterback with a secondary full of backups. However, what is wrong with Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense?
Odds:+12500 Record: 4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS Last Week's Rank: 16th
After getting back to .500, Atlanta has dropped their past two games as favorites and their playoff hopes are fading. If they and Philadelphia would close 5-1, they would have a shot. Playing the Saints Thursday night is not going to make this journey easier.
Odds:+3300 Record: 5-5 SU and 3-5-1 ATS Last Week's Rank: 18th
Dallas is back home after two stellar road wins and they will face Washington, who lost Alex Smith for the season. Can the Cowboys force a first-place tie with the Redskins and become the team to beat in the NFC East?
Odds:+10000 Record: 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS Last Week's Rank: 17th
Cincinnati could not stop the pass (32nd) and now they cannot stop the run either (32nd). Will Marvin Lewis finally be shown the door? That could mean two heading coaching jobs open in Ohio this offseason. Knowing Cleveland, they would probably hirer Lewis. Oh yea, they Bengals host the Browns this week.
Odds:+6600 Record: 5-5 SU and ATS Last Week's Rank: 21st
In some betting circles, losing Alex Smith was not the end of the world for Washington. But does anyone really believe Colt McCoy behind a battered offensive line and few healthy playmakers is going to beat Dallas and win the NFC East?
Odds: +25000 Record: 3-7 SU and ATS Last Week's Rank: 22nd
This season was as totally unexpected as last year's for Jacksonville. The coaching staff has no faith in Blake Bortles to throw down the field and the 2017 Jaguars defense has vanished. Remember earlier this season when we were making fun of Buffalo. The Jags play them and the teams have matching records.
Odds: +15000 Record: 4-6 SU and 4-5-1 ATS Last Week's Rank: 23rd
In a stunner, Denver upset the L.A. Chargers. After weeks of playing mediocre run defense, the Broncos have held their last four foes to 77.7 YPG on the ground. Next, another rugged test with Pittsburgh at a Mile High.
Odds: +30000 Record: 3-7 SU and 5-5 ATS Last Week's Rank: 25th
Break up the Giants, they have won two in a row! Of course, all they did was beat teams that actually were worse than they are. The G-Men will have a shot at covering the spread at Philadelphia with the Eagles secondary woes.
Odds: +100000 Record: 3-7 SU and ATS Last Week's Rank: 24th
After starting 2-0, Tampa Bay has an almost unfathomable -25 turnover margin since. San Francisco might get to west Florida early and run through all their tip drills and further practice ball-strip tackling.
Odds: +25000 Record: 5-5 SU and ATS Last Week's Rank: 28th
Miami might have the same record (5-5) as Indianapolis, but the Dolphins were a double-digit road underdog as of Monday afternoon. If quarterback play in a real deciding factor in the NFL, you know what to expect with Brock Osweiler taking on Andrew Luck.
Odds:+200000 Record: 2-8 SU and 5-5 ATS Last Week's Rank: 29th
You know your season is going down the crapper when you cannot hold a lead over Oakland at home and fall to the Raiders. With talk of Arizona possibly going a different direction with a new GM, coach Steve Wilks has a lot to prove the next six weeks.