2018-2019 Scores&Stats NFL Betting Power Rankings: Week 14
by Doug Upstone Scores & Statson
It was a tumultuous week in the NFL as home underdogs won outright five different times. Add that to favorites with only seven spread winners and our Power Ratings saw significant movement other than the same Top 3.
Favorites: 10-6 SU and 7-9 ATS (Season: 131-68-2 SU and 90-103-8 ATS) Favorite of 7 or more: 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS (Season: 44-12 SU and 28-27-1 ATS) Favorites of 3 or less: 4-3 SU and 4-3 ATS (Season: 37-35-2 SU and 30-39-6 ATS) Home Underdogs: 5-3 SU and 5-3 ATS (Season: 29-28-2 SU and 36-22-1 ATS) Pick Games: Home team 4-3 ATS
This all leads to our score-based Power Ratings. These type of ratings are based not only on records but on how teams did against the point spread, which gives us a broader view when it comes to understanding the strengths of a team when making lines.
Here are this week's ranking and team updates. Your comments are always welcome.
Odds:+325 Record: 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS Last Week's Rank: 1st
New Orleans did not look ready to play at Tampa Bay, trailing early 14-3, but after a blocked punt, the Saints closed the game out 25-0. A Monday nighter at Carolina won't be easy at the start, but the Panthers are beating themselves.
Odds:+1000 Record: 10-3 SU and 8-5 ATS Last Week's Rank: 5th
The Chargers could place themselves in a spot to win the AFC West if they upset the Chiefs at K.C. However, the offense misses RB Gordon and the defense continues being faulty in one facet each contest.
Odds:+650 Record: 9-4 and 8-5 ATS Last Week's Rank: 4th
The Patriots bizarro world continues in Miami, with an unreal loss. However, blame part of it on Tom Brady for taking a sack at halftime, which would have taken New England lead to nine points instead of six. Big ballgame at Pittsburgh this week.
Odds:+1200 Record: 9-4 SU and ATS Last Week's Rank: 11th
The Chicago defense gave the most performance of any team on that side of the ball all season in stopping the Rams cold. Next is revenge spot Bears fans are yearning for, at home against Green Bay, where they are 5-22 SU and 7-20 ATS vs. the Pack.
Odds:+4000 Record: 7-6 SU and 7-6 ATS Last Week's Rank: 9th
We know it's Kansas City, but Baltimore had the Chiefs beat, but like we have seen several times in the last few years, the Ravens defense does not come up with the biggest of stops when needed the most. Nevertheless, Baltimore still controls how its season will play out.
Odds:+1800 Record: 9-4 SU and 6-6-1 ATS Last Week's Rank: 6th
A rather uninspired showing at home versus Indianapolis might end up costing Houston the No.2 seed. Deshaun Watson is having problems reading blitzes and taking too many sacks. Texans need a big win at the Jets to show last week was a speed bump.
Odds:+1800 Record: 7-5-1 SU and 6-6-1 ATS Last Week's Rank: 7th
The Steelers are beginning to look like the Packers, with everything dependent on the quarterback. With three consecutive defeats, Pittsburgh could fall to second place with a loss to New England and a Baltimore victory.
Odds:+1800 Record: 8-5 SU and 7-5-1 ATS Last Week's Rank: 13th
The trade for Amari Cooper was widely criticized, yet the fact remains Dallas would not be playing for a division title this week unless they had gone after him. A notable game this week against Indianapolis with the stakes high for both teams.
Odds:+25000 Record: 5-7-1 SU and 5-8 ATS Last Week's Rank: 15th
Not sure if Green Bay was that good against Atlanta or the Falcons were just that bad. Let's see how the Packers battered offensive line holds up against Chicago's pass run and if the defense can stop the Bears tricky and aggressive offense.
Odds: +6000 Record: 6-7 and 5-8 ATS Last Week's Rank: 14th
Philadelphia gave it there all at Dallas, but a depleted secondary was too much to overcome and the Eagles chances of returning to the playoffs seem remote. Playing at the Rams could mean an at best .500 campaign for the Eagles.
Odds:+40000 Record: 5-8 SU and 7-6 ATS Last Week's Rank: 19th
Detroit had all of 218 yards of offense against Arizona, with 70+ yards of it coming on the game-clinching drive late in the fourth quarter. The defense did the rest and Lions and they will go after two straight wins with an outdoor affair at Buffalo.
Odds:+15000 Record: 6-7 SU and 6-6-1 ATS Last Week's Rank: 17th
After posting a 6-1 ATS record and climbing back to .500 with the playoffs still in sight, Denver played with zero ambition and not any heart and fell behind 20-0 to San Francisco before making the losing score appear respectable. A case could be made Cleveland could win at a Mile High Saturday.
Odds:+25000 Record: 5-8 SU and 8-5 ATS Last Week's Rank: 20th
With the offensive line playing dramatically different than early in the season, the New York football Giants are no longer a pushover and they are convinced they can be a .500 squad. Can they take that next step with win over the Titans?
Odds:+50000 Record: 5-8 SU and ATS Last Week's Rank: 21st
Tampa Bay was playing a very sharp game against New Orleans, leading 14-3 when a blocked punt changed everything for the Buccaneers and they barely made a whimper thereafter. The Bucs has a tough assignment at Baltimore next.
Odds:+25000 Record: 5-8 SU and ATS Last Week's Rank: 24th
Give Cincinnati there due, they competed hard and never gave against the Chargers, easily covering last week's biggest spread of 16.5 points with ease. A victory over Oakland at home in what should be a sparse gathering would still be a win for the Bengals.
Odds:+50000 Record: 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS Last Week's Rank: 20th
How far has Atlanta sunk, they were down 34-7 to Green Bay before two meaningless touchdowns. This is a lifeless team that seems millions of miles from nearly winning a Super Bowl less than two years ago on the calendar.
Odds:+20000 Record: 5-7-1 SU and 8-5 ATS Last Week's Rank: 26th
After a deplorable showing against Houston, Cleveland came home and knocked off a reeling Carolina club. What made that compelling was the Browns ability to bounce back and take a 50-50 game, something they have not done much of the last three years. Can the Brownies win at Denver?
Odds:+25000 Record: 7-6 SU and 8-5 ATS Last Week's Rank: 27th
It will forever be known as the "Miami Miracle". Some might wonder given the Dolphins SU and ATS record why they are not higher in these Power Ratings. The answer, there -55 point differential is still below Tampa Bay at Atlanta at -51. In other words, the Fins are more lucky than good.
Odds:+30000 Record: 6-7 SU and 7-6 ATS Last Week's Rank: 25th
Washington did what injured and failing teams do in December when they fall behind, they give up. The Redskins were down 40-0 to the Giants at home before "rallying" for 16 points. Pickup, Josh Jackson, who was playing in a pickup basketball charity tournament the week before last, will start for Jay Gruden this week.(Seriously)
Odds:+100000 Record: 4-9 SU and 5-8 ATS Last Week's Rank: 30th
It was not pretty, but Sam Darnold showed why New York drafted him, leading the Jets to a come from behind win at Buffalo. It was one of those games coaches talk about all the time, "just keep playing" and Gang Green did and got the win. Can the Flyboys engineer another upset at home versus Houston Saturday?
Odds:+300000 Record: 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS Last Week's Rank: 31st
Give the Niners props, they beat a hot Denver team that was not ready to compete and that was not San Francisco's fault. Not surprisingly, QB Nick Mullens has played much better at home than on the road and they have quick turnaround revenge with Seattle, whose on a short week.
Odds: +100000 Record: 4-9 SU and 5-8 ATS Last Week's Rank: 28th
With a chance to sweep the Jets, Buffalo was outscored 14-3 in the final 15 minutes and broke down in all areas to lose 27-23. All they can do is prepare for Detroit at home and play all 60 minutes this time.
Odds: +500000 Record: 3-10 SU and 4-8-1 ATS Last Week's Rank: 32nd
Oakland has been competitive in three of their past four games and earned a thrilling upset at home against Pittsburgh. Does any football bettor dare think the Raiders can cover the number three times in a row?
Odds:+300000 Record: 3-10 SU and 6-7 ATS Last Week's Rank: 32nd
One week after Arizona won in Green Bay, their offense had the flow of trickling faucet in an ugly loss to Detroit. In spite of better spread record than Oakland, the Cardinals fall back to our No.32 team with last week's Cards game tape sure to work for those with sleeping disorders.