2018-2019 Scores&Stats NFL Betting Power Rankings: Week 3
by Doug Upstone Scores & Statson
In the NFL, betting underdogs continue to be the most profitable method this season. Taking the points is winning across the board and until proven otherwise, it is the most logical play.
Favorites: 9-7 SU and 7-9 ATS (Season: 25-18-2 SU and 17-27-1 ATS) Favorite of 7 or more: 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS (Season: 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS) Favorites of 3 or less: 4-3 SU and 4-3 ATS (Season: 7-9-2 SU and 6-11-1 ATS) Home Underdogs: 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS (Season: 5-4-2 SU and 9-2 ATS) Pick Games: Home team 3-0 ATS
This all leads to our score-based Power Ratings, which is new this season. These type of ratings are based not only on records but on how teams did against the point spread, which gives us a broader view when it comes to understanding the strengths of a team when making lines.
Here are this week's ranking and team updates. Your comments are always welcome.
Odds:+1200 Record: 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS Last Week's Rank: 14th
New Orleans rekindled the running game at Atlanta for the first time and offense was more complete. Of concern is 30th ranked pass defense which is best described as flammable. A trip to New Jersey to face take on Big Blue and that has not always been pleasant.
Odds:+1100 Record: 2-1 and 1-2 ATS Last Week's Rank: 7th
Carson Wentz came back but Philadelphia continues to play like a team that won a Super Bowl the previous year. The Eagles are 24th scoring and being saved by their red zone defense. Tough game at Tennessee this week.
Odds: +2800 Record: 2-1 SU and ATS Last Week's Rank: 11th
Carolina and Norv Turner as OC have been a great fit for Cam Newton and Panthers offense. This is still a run-first offense, but they are using Christian McCaffrey the way they said and the offensive line is holding up thru injuries. Bye week.
Odds: +1400 Record: 1-1-1 SU and 1-2 ATS Last Week's Rank: 10th
Pittsburgh got a much-needed victory over Tampa Bay and the offense had more fluidity. The Sunday night battle with Baltimore will be a head-buster and for the Steelers to win, the pass defense has to get better.
Odds: +1200 Record: 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS Last Week's Rank: 4th
A sign of maturity is not only handling adversity, but success and Jacksonville failed miserably, at least on offense in scoring two field goals in the setback to Tennessee. If the Jaguars blowout the Jets, that loss will be considered a hiccup.
Odds:+6600 Record: 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS Last Week's Rank: 19th
The Lions finally played with urgency and flat out beat New England soundly. Matt Stafford and the offensive line did a great job and defense was never out of position. If Detroit can win at Dallas, they have the Packers at home next and can retake their season.
Odds: +1800 Record: 1-1-1 SU and 1-2 ATS Last Week's Rank: 3rd
For the second time in three games, the Green Bay defense was not ready from the first whistle and dug there team a hole. Aaron Rodgers could not save the Pack and several of his offensive teammates also let their team down. This team is beginning to appear overrated.
Odds:+2500 Record: 1-2 SU and ATS Last Week's Rank: 12th
The Chargers really miss Joey Bosa because, without a pass rush, the L.A. South defense is exposed. Philip Rivers and Melvin Gordon just need more stops so they are not playing from behind. Bolts catching San Fran at the perfect time.
Odds: +3300 Record: 2-1 SU and ATS Last Week's Rank: 16th
The Bucs beat themselves and Ryan Fitzpatrick had what many consider a typical game for him, with lots of passing yards and lots of mistakes. If Tampa Bay can avoid mistakes, Chicago does not score enough and the Bucs can win in the Windy City.
Odds: +850 Record: 1-2 and 1-2 ATS Last Week's Rank: 6th
New England starting 1-2 has a completely different feel to other slower September starts. The defense is being abused and shows no life and where are the play-makers on offense? Sportsbooks are no longer shading Patriots number and they face 3-0 Miami.
Odds:+5000 Record: 1-2 and 1-1-1 ATS Last Week's Rank: 23rd
One of Pete Carroll's best qualities is honesty. After losing at Chicago and running only 22 times, he admitted he has to help Russell Wilson and stay committed to the run even if the results are not there. That worked against Dallas (39 rush attempts) and it can work in Arizona.
Odds:+4000 Record: 3-0 SU and ATS Last Week's Rank: 18th
Either Miami is really good, lucky or efficient. The Dolphins ran just 38 plays versus Oakland yet tallied 28 points. The Fins pass defense is listed at 29th, but they make plays when it counts. A fascinating contest at New England this week.
Odds:+5000 Record: 2-1 SU and ATS Last Week's Rank: 21st
It's not pretty, but Tennessee is tied for first with Jacksonville in the AFC South. The Titans defense has been physical and only allowing 16.7 PPG. If they can upset the Super Bowl champs and the offense starts improving, Tennessee starts moving up.
Odds:+4000 Record: 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS Last Week's Rank: 28th
Like the Ark ride at state fairs, Washington continues there up and down nature. The biggest difference with this team is always about assertiveness and playing with passion weekly. No worries this week about the Redskins, they have a bye.
Odds:+5000 Record: 1-2 SU and ATS Last Week's Rank: 13th
Not suggesting we know everything about Dallas, but it seems like it. The defense is above average and with attention to detail, this could a very good defense. On offense, the line's not good enough, neither are the receivers and Dak Prescott resembles the quarterback at Mississippi State in his sophomore junior years. #upanddown
Odds:+10000 Record: 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS Last Week's Rank: 17th
Have to really feel for San Francisco and you have to wonder about Jimmy Garoppolo's future now. He will be 28 during the season next year and even if he's ready by the season opener, he'll only have about one full season of starts at that age. Enter C.J. Beathard again.
Odds:+6600 Record: 0-3 SU and ATS Last Week's Rank: 20th
Over most of the J.J. Watt era in Houston, there was always some deliberating injury that held Houston back. This is there is not one reason other than poor performance for the Texans to have a 0-3 record. The entire season is on the line in Indy.
Odds:+6600 Record: 1-2 SU and 1-2 ATS Last Week's Rank: 24th
The Giants got into the win column with a road win at Houston, Eli Manning had his best game of the season and was on target. Saquon Barkley continues to impress. The G-Men are 7-2 SU at home against New Orleans.
Odds: +15000 Record: 1-2 SU and 1-2 ATS Last Week's Rank: 22nd
Cleveland was going to win eventually, but the most disappointing aspect for the Jets was not adding on more points after having a 14-0 lead. Tough test for Sam Darnold against angry Jacksonville club.
Odds:+3300 Record: 2-1 SU and ATS Last Week's Rank: 26th
The Bears lead the NFC Central and yet are this low in the power ratings. Again, these ratings take into consideration the spreads and since Chicago started low, they need more impressive wins to move up. Whipping Tama Bay might help.
Odds:+8000 Record: 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS Last Week's Rank: 27th
There are growing concerns about Sam Bradford's ability to throw the ball down the field when he was pulled to toss a 60+ yards Hail Mary at Philadelphia. A win over Houston will be a good distraction for Indianapolis.
Odds:+4000 Record: 2-1 SU and 0-2-1 ATS Last Week's Rank: 29th
The Broncos blocked a punt and a field goal and were never close to covering the spread in the second half at Baltimore. Case Keenum has five interceptions and lost fumble in three games. Next up, Kansas City on Monday night.
Odds:+15000 Record: 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS Last Week's Rank: 29th
The John Gruden era has gotten off to a rocky start. Not sure what kind of shape Oakland players are in or about halftime adjustments, but the Raiders have been outscored 64-17 in the second half. Next up, a "hot" Browns team.
Odds:+40000 Record: 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS Last Week's Rank: 32nd
After jetting to a 14-0 lead over Chicago, Arizona did what all bad teams do and committed four second-half turnovers to lose. The Josh Rosen officially starts this week at home against Seattle and another end for Sam Bradford.