2018-2019 Scores&Stats NFL Betting Power Rankings: Week 9
by Doug Upstone Scores & Statson
Though sportsbooks got crushed around the world this past week, mostly by favorites, overall they were only 6-6 SU and ATS. After leveling off, short favorites got nailed this week.
Favorites: 6-6 SU and 6-6 ATS (Season: 84-42-2 SU and 59-66-3 ATS) Favorite of 7 or more: 2-0 SU and 2-2 ATS (Season: 26-6 SU and 16-15-1 ATS) Favorites of 3 or less: 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS (Season: 26-26-2 SU and 23-29-2 ATS) Home Underdogs: 2-2 SU and 2-2 ATS (Season: 15-16-2 SU and 21-12 ATS) Pick Games: Home team 4-2 ATS
This all leads to our score-based Power Ratings, which we introduced this season. These type of ratings are based not only on records but on how teams did against the point spread, which gives us a broader view when it comes to understanding the strengths of a team when making lines. Here are this week's ranking and team updates. Your comments are always welcome.
Odds:+500 Record: 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS Last Week's Rank: 3rd
Nobody is playing better football right now than the Saints after their brilliant victory over the Rams. We moved them to the top spot of power ratings, but their actual number is the same as Kansas City. A trip to Cincy could be treacherous.
Odds:+550 Record: 8-1 SU and 8-1 ATS Last Week's Rank: 2nd
Though Kansas City figured to move to the top spot in power ratings based on spread record, their defense is still causing a lot of concern and for that, we well kept them as the best team in the AFC. The Chiefs should pummel Arizona.
Odds:+350 Record: 8-1 SU and 4-4-1 ATS Last Week's Rank: 1st
Since starting 3-0 SU and ATS, the Rams have allowed four of their next six opponents to score 27 or more points and are 1-4-1 ATS in the process. Drew Brees and New Orleans fully exposed all their defensive shortcomings as they suffered first loss of the season. Next up is a rematch with Seattle at home.
Odds: +1400 Record: 5-3-1 SU and 4-3-2 ATS Last Week's Rank: 7th
After a very sluggish defensive start, the Vikings are starting to swarm. Their defensive line engulfed Matt Stafford in victory. After a bye week, Minnesota will be on the road for three of their next four, with an important one first at Chicago.
Odds:+500 Record: 6-2 and 5-3 ATS Last Week's Rank: 4th
The Patriots were tested for three quarters by Green Bay, but as all quality teams do, New England put them away with 14-0 fourth quarter. The Pats have a trip to Nashville on tap and they are 15-5 ATS on the road since 2016.
Odds:+2000 Record: 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS Last Week's Rank: 5th
Carolina built a huge 35-7 first-half lead over Tampa Bay, coasted until the Bucs got within seven points and then put them away. There game on Thursday at Pittsburgh should be one of the best of Week 10.
Odds:+5000 Record: 4-4 and 4-3-1 ATS Last Week's Rank: 8th
Seattle suffered secondary breakdowns and dropped passes in losing to the L.A. Chargers at the buzzer at home. That was a needed victory with a trip to play the other Los Angeles squad this week whose off a loss.
Odds:+2200 Record: 6-3 SU and 4-4-1 ATS Last Week's Rank: 10th
Houston has performed a turnaround similar to what Kansas City did a few years ago with six straight wins after beginning 0-3. Timing of bye week seems almost perfect to permit QB Deshaun Watson to get healthy.
Odds:+2500 Record: 5-3 SU and ATS Last Week's Rank: 15th
Chicago only gained 190 yards in scoring 41 points at Buffalo as the defense never rested in the blowout. If the Bears can win next two home games against Detroit and Minnesota, they set themselves up to win NFC North.
Odds: +2200 Record: 4-4 and 3-5 ATS Last Week's Rank: 11th
Philadelphia has played like typical Super Bowl champion that came out nowhere. With the NFC East just waiting for someone to take charge, the Eagles can start to do so with a win over Dallas Sunday night.
Odds:+4000 Record: 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS Last Week's Rank: 19th
Atlanta players will tell you, sometimes just winning consecutive games, even without dominating, alters a team's confidence. The Dirty Birds crushed Washington and try to make four in a row at Cleveland.
Odds:+5000 Record: 3-4-1 SU and 3-5 ATS Last Week's Rank: 13th
Green Bay plays one rung below the top teams in the NFL which is why they have the record they do. To have any shot at the playoffs, the Packers have to go 6-2 and it starts this week with a home game versus Miami.
Odds:+15000 Record: 3-5 SU and 5-3 ATS Last Week's Rank: 14th
The Detroit front office said they were not giving up on the season when trading Golden Tate. If you saw how much Matthew Stafford missed him in defeat at Minnesota, one would beg to differ. Can the Lions pull it together in Chicago?
Odds: +4000 Record: 5-3 SU and ATS Last Week's Rank: 18th
Washington should never get any credit for winning, ever. After taking three straight, the Redskins folded like a poker player with 8 and 2 for hole cards in being blasted by Atlanta. That left such an impression the Skins were underdogs at Tampa Bay to start the week.
Odds:+100000 Record: 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS Last Week's Rank: 26th
The Giants even screwed up the bye week. Potential starting QB Kyle Lauletta, who was being given serious consideration to replace Eli Manning, was arrested and charged with various motor vehicle and disorderly persons offenses on Oct. 30th. Wonder if he will have any stripes on his uniform Monday night in Santa Clara?
Odds:+40000 Record: 3-6 SU and ATS Last Week's Rank: 25th
Quarterback Sam Darnold said after losing to Miami last week, he was "just playing stupid". With seven interceptions during the Jets three-game losing streak, some might agree. If the Flyboys don't win and cover against Buffalo this week, more might be on board with Darnold's thinking.
Odds:+50000 Record: 2-6-1 SU and 5-4 ATS Last Week's Rank: 29th
It's not like Cleveland had really turned a corner, but as they get ready to face a smoking hot Matt Ryan at home this week, trying to avoid a fifth straight loss, they have seen in recent games Patrick Mahomes, Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers.
Odds:+100000 Record: 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS Last Week's Rank: 31st
In the Bills last six games they have averaged an impossible to believe by any football standard 7.6 PPG. We guess it's good news QB Josh Allen is upgraded to 'probable" this week for the Jets conflict.
Odds:+150000 Record: 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS Last Week's Rank: 32nd
The locals in Vegas have seen plenty of losers over the years and it is setting up they are going to get one of their own when the Raiders officially arrive in 2020. Jon Gruden seems to be the only one confident in his plan. (Whatever that is).