In any given NFL season, the number of quarterbacks that throw for more than 4,500 yards is relatively few. The number is rarely more than five, which is the exact number of quarterbacks that reached the plateau last season. Online sportsbooks are offering NFL futures odds on quarterbacks that will pass for fewer than 4,500 yards. Which ones are your best bets?

RUSSELL WILSON – SEATTLE (UNDER 3650.5, 5/6)
Let’s take a look at exactly how many times the NFL’s highest-paid player has thrown for 4,500 yards. None. Never. In fact, in his seven-year career, Wilson has only topped 4,000 yards twice. Last season, Wilson threw for a career-high 35 touchdowns but “only” passed for 3,448 yards. 


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You can expect Wilson to hit roughly the same yardage mark in 2019. The reason is simple. The Seahawks have the NFL’s best running game. Head coach Pete Carroll likes to pound the football with the run and play great defense. Wilson will still make his share of plays. He just won’t make them to the tune of 4,500 yards. This prediction is easy: Russell Wilson will not top 4,500 passing yards.

DREW BREES – NEW ORLEANS (UNDER 4350.5, 10/11)
Brees, the NFL’s career passing yardage leader has led the league in passing seven times and topped the 4,500-yard mark in eight different seasons. Over the past two seasons, Brees has become increasingly more accurate and established a new NFL record when he completed an astonishing 74.4 percent of his passes. 

Brees led the league in passer rating as well last year, but he “only” threw for 3,992 yards. The Saints offense, much like Seattle, has gotten much better at running the football. Mark Ingram is gone, but do-it-all running back Alvin Kamara returns. The Saints also brought in Latavius Murray to run behind one of the better offensive lines in football. 

The bottom line is the New Orleans Saints offense doesn’t need Brees to throw for 4,500 yards. Bet365.com is giving 10/11 odds that Brees throws for fewer than 4,350.5 yards, which he has done in each of the past two seasons. Like that of Wilson, this prediction is another easy one. The Saints offense continues to be prolific, but Brees doesn’t throw for 4,500 yards in the process.

JARED GOFF – LOS ANGELES RAMS (UNDER 4425.5, 5/6)
In his third year in head coach Sean McVay’s offense, Goff flourished completing nearly 65 percent of his passes for 4,688 yards and 32 touchdowns. It was the first time in his career Goff surpassed 4,000 yards. In an offense as prolific as the Rams’, one would figure Goff would simply line up and do it again. You will find some offshore sportsbooks offering favorable odds that Goff will do so. I, on the other hand, think Goff goes under 4,500.


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Goff will likely light it up again even with a running game led by All-Pro RB Todd Gurley. The fourth-year quarterback will almost assuredly hit the 4,000-yard mark, but he won’t hit 4,500 for one simple reason. The Rams are too good. Los Angeles won’t need to play Goff in the final game of the season against Arizona. While Goff may throw for a ridiculous number of yards, not playing in Week 17 will prevent him from surpassing 4,500 yards.

TOM BRADY – NEW ENGLAND (UNDER 4150.5, 4/5)
As prolific as Brady has been during his 19-year NFL career, he has only thrown for more than 4,500 yards five times. One of those was the 2017 season in which he led the NFL with 4,577 yards and earned the league’s MVP. It was Brady’s first 4,500-plus season since 2007.

Last season, the Patriots finished No. 5 in the NFL in rushing offense averaging 127.3 yards per game. The emergence of RB Sony Michel has improved the Patriots’ ground game, which makes Brady’s job even easier. As easy as it is for Brady, he still will not throw for 4,500 yards in 2019.

MATTHEW STAFFORD – DETROIT (UNDER 4000.5, 5/6)
Stafford has spent his entire 10-year career in Detroit and hasn’t missed a game since 2010. Between 2011 and 2013, Stafford threw for over 4,600 yards in three straight seasons. Last season was the first in which Stafford failed to eclipse 4,200 yards since 2010.


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The Lions drafted athletic TE T.J. Hockenson, acquired TE Jesse James, and have a stable of capable receivers like Danny Amendola and Marvin Jones Jr. Detroit has been known to rely on Stafford to produce. The Lions’ running game has been one of the worst in the NFL over the last decade. Still, I expect Stafford to hit 4,000 yards, but 4,500 is simply out of his reach. 

In 141 NFL games, Stafford has averaged 273 passing yards per game. Over the course of a 16-game season, that puts him at about 4,370 yards for the season. 

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