Winning nine games in a row not only takes talent but weekly dedication to practice and film study for preparation. Sometimes, as any football coach and players will tell, some days you show up and you just don't have it. That was Houston last week who lacked the fervor and lost to Indianapolis. The Texans could go one of two ways, either be angry and beat the crap out of the New York Jets or have a carryover and be pushed for 60 minutes. This teaser line gives us a cushion as long as Houston puts in enough effort to win the game. Teams that have enjoyed offensive success against Houston have been able to throw the pigskin, but Gang Green is 30th in passing.
The way the Minnesota offense has performed the last two weeks, this could feel like Maalox moment, even with the Vikings just needing to defeat Miami. But no need to worry as Minnesota's offense will do better at home, especially against a Dolphins defense that is permitting 29.5 PPG on the road. Plus, the last 42 times the Vikes played at home against an opponent allowing 24 or more PPG, they have won by an average of 10.7 PPG.
Dallas Taken from +2.5 to +8.5 against Indianapolis
This a meaningful game for two squads that are peaking at the right time of the year. One team is going to lose, but our read is it will be a close nonconference clash. The Colts are a large surprise this season and they have won six of seven. If they defeat Dallas, Pittsburgh falls to New England, a real possibility, and Baltimore wins, Indy move up to 2nd Wild Card slot in the AFC. This, however, is far from a done deal, with Dallas on a 5-0 SU and ATS tear. The Cowboys defense is arguably the best in the NFL and has been the most consistent all season. Adding Amari Cooper saved the offense and now they are playing well as a unit. The Cowboys are not blowing anyone out, but they compete with everyone and at these numbers, we can climb over 3, 6 and 7, all very important figures for football. Let's put a bow on this pick with Dallas 17-0 against a teaser line versus defenses allowing a completion percentage of 64% or worse in the second half of the season.
What will stop anyone in their tracks for this teaser is Green Bay at 22-5 SU at Soldier Field since Brett Favre took over as the Packers starting quarterback. That's impressive, yet we still need to place in the context of today. Green Bay is an average to below average squad that is injury-riddled on both lines and is going thru a coaching change. Chicago is young, fast and talented on both sides of the ball and is extremely confident in their abilities. Even if you believe in the ghosts of football past, the Bears desire to beat the Pack in this spot should override the confidence the Green and Gold might come into the game with. Chicago does not have to whip Green Bay to cover this teaser, just beat them. With the Packers 0-6 on the road this season, that seems very possible.
Special Note from Author: You should know betting NFL teasers is just not about shaving or adding more points on a spread wager, it is about creating value going against key numbers. This is the real secret to beating the oddsmakers numbers.
The keys numbers we are talking about are 3, 6, 7, 10, 13 and 14. These are the most common outcomes in the NFL and if you can situate your wagers on the right side of these figures, you can dramatically enhance your chances of winning teasers.