NFL 6-Point Teasers For Your Betting Arsenal - Week 16 Picks
by Doug Upstone Scores & Statson
Nice to have a bounce-back week at 3-1, picking up a three-teamer and two-teamer for winners and improving our profit picture. That has brought our overall record to 42-20 (30-12 L10W) and we will do everything in our power to have two more winning weeks.
The last two weeks of the season are not easy, as you have some bad games in which you do not know which team or teams are going to bother to show up. With more limited choices, it becomes a little harder.
Here is a look at the four teasers we like for this upcoming week. If you are new to this article, skip down to below the games to learn a great way to make money betting NFL teasers.
After beating Philadelphia and nearly wrapping the NFC East, Dallas went on holiday and was humbled at Indianapolis 23-0. The Cowboys are back home and it would seem the last thing they would want to do is leave the door ajar for a division rival to catch them. Tampa Bay has covered three of their last four by playing stronger defense and they could well make Dallas uncomfortable, even at home. That is why taking the Cowboys thru key numbers matters. When the teaser number is -1 and the total is 46 or 46.5, teams like Dallas are 11-1 vs. the teaser line since 2016.
The Vikings righted their ship in pounding Miami and they head to Detroit next. Minnesota ran the ball as coach Mike Zimmer wanted and the offensive line and new offensive coordinator did the rest. Detroit has gotten better at stopping the run since early in the season, but the Vikings don't need an average 5 yards a pop, just keep moving the chains, which sets up Kirk Cousins to utilize his talented receivers. Matthew Stafford and Lions offense is in a funk (more on that later), thus, placing a desperate Minnesota team needing a win to hold on playoff position helps us. And getting the Vikes in what is a money line bet for this teaser also is a benefit.
Vikings/Lions Taken from 43.5 to Under 49.5
Don't be fooled by Minnesota scoring 41 points last week, they still are averaging 23.1 PPG on the season and just below that on the road. Detroit, oh yeah, it's been ugly for a while. Since beating Miami on the third Sunday of October, the Lions, led by Stafford, has averaged a mere 15.6 PPG. Detroit's defense has not been good versus better teams that know how to score, but against average to below averages offenses like Minnesota, they held the last four squads like this to only 15 PPG. Taking this information and being able to lift the total to 49.5, we also found this. Teams in December off a two-game road trip averaged 40.8 total points the last 103 times this occurred.
Since Cody Kessler has taken over as the starting quarterback at Jacksonville, they have managed to score 28 points. This includes one touchdown when trailing 30-2 to Tennessee with under two minutes remaining in the game and punt return for a TD last week. Last week the Jaguars had 20 net yards passing, 20. This is not to say Miami is anything special since they have a -79 point scoring differential, which is hardly the mark of even a .500 team that they are. But given Jacksonville's sorry state and the fact Ryan Tannehill has won 15 of his last 21 starts and the Dolphins are 6-1 at home this year, they are a more attractive teaser play versus the Jags who are 1-6 away from home.
Special Note from Author: You should know betting NFL teasers is just not about shaving or adding more points on a spread wager, it is about creating value going against key numbers. This is the real secret to beating the oddsmakers numbers.
The keys numbers we are talking about are 3, 6, 7, 10, 13 and 14. These are the most common outcomes in the NFL and if you can situate your wagers on the right side of these figures, you can dramatically enhance your chances of winning teasers.