NFL 6-Point Teasers For Your Betting Arsenal - Week 3 Picks
by Doug Upstone Scores & Statson
You should know betting NFL teasers is just not about shaving or adding more points on a spread wager, it is about creating value going against key numbers. This is the real secret to beating the oddsmakers numbers.
The keys numbers we are talking about are 3, 6, 7, 10, 13 and 14. These are the most common outcomes in the NFL and if you can situate your wagers on the right side of these figures, you can dramatically enhance your chances of winning teasers.
Last week was the first time in 26 NFL regular season weeks I failed to win any two, three or four team teasers. This was on a weekend where the sportsbooks absolutely cleaned up across the board. It happens and all you do is work harder and try and bounce back.
Philadelphia Taken From -6.5 to a -0.5 over Indianapolis
The defending Super Bowl champs have played five quarters of rather mediocre football. This is not unusual for teams that took home the Lombardi Trophy, as they often lack the motivational fire, particularly in Weeks 2-5 of the next season. But all things being equal that does not mean they are not good enough to win and that is why we have dropped the Eagles down to the point where they are only required to win outright over Indianapolis. Being able to pass thru key numbers like 6 and 3, we find Philly is winning by 12.3 PPG at home the past three years.
Jacksonville Taken From -6.5 to -0.5 over Tennessee
With Marcus Mariota and Leonard Fournette's status still up in the air, not every sportsbook has a line posted for this AFC South showdown. Those that do have Jacksonville at -6.5. Our Scores and Stats Power Ratings have the Jaguars as the best team in the AFC after handling New England with relative ease. The Jags might suffer a bit of letdown after such a contest which is why we like them to just win the game for this teaser. Tennessee is less a threat than perceived as there margin of victory last Sunday was based on a fake punt for a touchdown and they were outgained by 154 yards by Houston. Teaser home favorites that opened and stayed at this price are 32-3 since 2015.
Every year there is a fake 2-0 team to start the year and this season its Denver. The Broncos have not covered either victory, both at home, and they are 1-9 SU and ATS in past 10 roadies. Baltimore should arrive rested and angry, having played last Thursday and were mental and physical no-shows for a half versus Cincinnati. While we are only passing thru one key number (3) the Ravens are asked to just win and are 34-3 against a teaser line after gaining 300 or more passing yards in their last outing.
The Patriots were basically manhandled by Jacksonville and have to regroup. The offensive line was mediocre and the defensive was shredded thru the air by the Jaguars, just like what happened in the Super Bowl. But at least New England is only playing Detroit, even if it is on the road. The Lions are 0-2 and save the last 10 minutes of the fourth quarter last week at San Francisco when trailing 30-13 and they scored a couple TD's, Detroit played more like the Giants than the Packers and Vikings. The price is right on New England and they are an outlandish 25-2 against a teaser line off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite.