NFL 6-Point Teasers For Your Betting Arsenal - Week 4 Picks
by Doug Upstone Scores & Statson
The NFL has gotten off to a wild start! Sportsbooks are raking in money to start the season at record numbers. This has nothing to do with states in the USA opening sports betting. However, it has everything to do with the number of upsets, both against the spread and SU we have seen after three weeks.
All those upsets have also helped sportsbooks on the usually profitable parlay and teaser cards. Normally, this is an area where you can find weaknesses to exploit against the books as is explained at the bottom of this article, but to date, it's been a rough go.
The best thing to keep in mind is that we are only three weeks into the season, this we can turn around quickly with the same methods that are tried and true. Here is what looks to be the four strongest teaser plays.
These NFL odds are courtesy of .
New England Taken From -6.5 to a -0.5 over Miami
Yes, we have gotten burned by the Patriots twice in the last two weeks, but those were on the road. Back home New England is very difficult to beat and is 64-9 SU in the regular season since 2009. Miami has gotten off to a terrific 3-0 start, but there are warning signs like being outgained by 53 yards a game. In this spot, we are just expecting New England to win the game and they are 23-4 against the teaser line at home vs. the Dolphins and 32-3 after allowing 400 or more total yards a game in their last three outings.
Jacksonville Taken From -7.5 to -1.5 over N.Y. Jets
Sportsbooks shifting Jacksonville from -9 to -7.5 should work to our advantage for this teaser. As has been mentioned before, this is one our favorite numbers because we slide under the key numbers of 7, 6 and 3. The only way we lose if Jacksonville wins is if they have the rare one-point outcome. The Jaguars laid the proverbial egg last week so look for them to want to wrap up this three-game homestand on a winning note. Plus, home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points, after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers, facing an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse, win by 12.8 PPG the last 49 times this situation occurred.
Both teams are just 1-2 and not playing particularly well. The spread suggests a close game, with Dallas just a normal three-point home favorite. What makes the Lions attractive in this spot is two-fold. It starts with the Cowboys offensive woes. They are averaging just 13.7 PPG (against teams allowing 20.7 PPG), which makes it difficult to think they could beat Detroit by more than nine points unless there are multiple turnovers. Just as important for this teaser is we come off the 3, and pass thru the key numbers of 6 and 7. The clincher is a system relating the Cowboys lack turnovers forced and the last 75 times this has been in play, teams like Dallas have won by 0.4 PPG.
On Sunday night, this should be a head-buster like usual, as annually these are two of the most physical games of the season. Coming into this battle, Baltimore has the better offense and defense if you use scoring as a barometer. This is step one why bumping the Ravens up to +9 makes sense. I explained step two in the Lions/Cowboys matchup, as those numbers are exactly the same. And the finishing touch is Baltimore is 42-3 against a teaser line as a road underdog of three or less on the standard spread line.
Special Note from Author: You should know betting NFL teasers is just not about shaving or adding more points on a spread wager, it is about creating value going against key numbers. This is the real secret to beating the oddsmakers numbers.
The keys numbers we are talking about are 3, 6, 7, 10, 13 and 14. These are the most common outcomes in the NFL and if you can situate your wagers on the right side of these figures, you can dramatically enhance your chances of winning teasers.