After three weeks of craziness in the NFL, Week 4 brought about some normalcy. Yes, Tennessee and Baltimore engineered upsets and San Francisco almost won as a 10-point underdog, but, Green Bay, New England and Jacksonville all won handily as most expected.

This enabled us to sweep the board on the four-team teaser and every combination of two and three teamers also. That helped us overcomes a sluggish start and move back into a profitable position for these wagers.

Let's see if we can duplicate last week's success. These NFL odds are courtesy of Intertops. 


NFL Week 5 Early Betting Lines


Carolina Taken From -7 to a -1 over N.Y. Giants

The Giants offensive line cannot block a stationary wall, let alone get a push or stop an oncoming 260 to 300-pound human being with bad intentions. With Eli Manning seeming slowing down quarter by quarter at age 37, being under constant stress makes the idea of doing Direct TV commercials with his brother again sound fun. Carolina will also have the advantage of coming off a bye which should make them fresher. For this teaser, we get away from the key numbers of 3,6 and 7 and place the Panthers at a point where if they win, only a single point victory would hurt us. The Cats last 44 nonconference home games have an average winning margin of 5.9 PPG.

Tennessee/Buffalo Taken from 39 to OVER 33 Total

This total is the lowest scoring conflict on the Week 5 docket. Nobody this week is looking at Marcus Mariota or Josh Allen as their fantasy quarterback choice. However, being able to drop this totals teaser down this far should help us unless Buffalo has a snow storm. (It's Buffalo, after Labor Day, anything is possible.) Think about this, the last 10 times the Bills returned home off a road game, the average final score was 54.4 total points. Tennessee, the past 46 contests when they went against an offense that gains 285 or less YPG, 45 points was the typical number. Take the OVER 33.

Atlanta Taken From +3 to +9 against Pittsburgh

It seems a certainty with these two teams offenses and defenses, the scoreboard operator will want to be paid a volume rate, not an hourly rate. Pittsburgh's and Atlanta's stop troops are among the worst in the NFL. And Big Ben and Matty Ice have their respective offenses rollin'. Because of this, that is why raising the Falcons all the way to 9-points has value. Do you really see the Steelers putting away the Dirty Birds with that pass defense? Plus, even if they have a 10-point in the later stages of the four quarter, can't you see Matt Ryan leading his team to a field goal or touchdown to tighten the score?  Road teams like Atlanta allowing 6.0 or more yards a play, after conceding 400 or more total yards in three consecutive outings, have won by 1.3 PPG the past 42 times that situation arrived.

New Orleans Taken From 6.5 to -0.5 over Washington

Drew Brees will set the NFL passing record on Monday night, needing 201 yards to do so. Do you really think New Orleans is not going to beat Washington in the Dome? That does seem far-fetched, but just in case, this teaser takes out all the risk, placing the Saints in the position of needing just a W. In the last few years when the point spread led to these exact teaser points, the home team is 34-3 at a -0.5 teaser line. 

Special Note from Author: You should know betting NFL teasers is just not about shaving or adding more points on a spread wager, it is about creating value going against key numbers. This is the real secret to beating the oddsmakers numbers.

The keys numbers we are talking about are 3, 6, 7, 10, 13 and 14. These are the most common outcomes in the NFL and if you can situate your wagers on the right side of these figures, you can dramatically enhance your chances of winning teasers.

 

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