Kyle Busch has been a factor in every race this season including last weekend at Bristol where he picked up his third win of the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season. That’s why the driver of the No. 18 Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing is riding the top of the favorite to win list. Busch, at +200, is far ahead of a group of drivers at +700.

The reason for the gap is more than the three wins. It’s the fact that two of those three wins are recent and they came on a wide variety of tracks showing that the JGR team has the ability to dial their car in for any venue. The only untested type of track is road course and there’s no reason to think they don’t have that figured out as well. 


Auto Racing Glance: TOYOTA OWNERS 400


The question is if any other driver can shake up things and get past Kyle. According to oddsmakers at Intertops, there are only four drivers coming in under +1000 besides Busch.

 

Kyle Busch+200
Kevin Harvick+700
Brad Keselowski+700
Joey Logano+700
Martin Truex Jr+750

 

This is the Cup Series second visit to Virginia in the 2019 season and any of the five drivers listed above can win under the Richmond Raceway lights this weekend. In fact, four of the top-five favored drivers have past Richmond victories. Martin Truex Jr. is the only driver listed above without a win at the track. That could change this weekend. More on that below. As for past winners, here’s how things breakdown over the last ten races with year, driver, and manufacture.

Factoring in Past Richmond Winners

It’s been the Kyle show at Richmond for the last three races at the track. Kyle Busch went back-to-back winning both 2018 events with Kyle Larson winning in the 2017 fall race.

 

2014Joey LoganoFord
2014Brad KeselowskiFord
2015Kurt BuschChevrolet
2015Matt KensethToyota
2016Carl EdwardsToyota
2016Denny HamlinToyota
2017Joey LoganoFord
2017Kyle LarsonChevrolet
2018Kyle BuschToyota
2018Kyle BuschToyota

 

Both Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards have retired so the next set of drivers include Kurt Busch as well as Logano and Keselowski. Toyota has won five of the last ten Richmond races and the Toyota camp looks strong in 2019 having won four of the last five Cup Series races.

2019 Toyota Owners 400 Prediction

The 2019 Toyota Owners 400 is run on at Richmond Raceway which is billed as being a superspeedway built like a short track. Just for reference, Talladega is over 2.5 miles, Daytona is 2.5 miles, Bristol is .53 miles long, and Martinsville is .526 miles long. Richmond is .75 miles long. 

The design features a look similar to larger tracks such as Daytona and Talladega but on a smaller scale. This will make several middle-tier teams have great runs. But, the race is not known for awarding lesser funded teams with a surprise win which can happen at regular Superspeedways.



Look for the regulars, Busch, Harvick, Logano, Keselowski, and Hamlin will have great runs but Kyle Busch has won the last two races at Richmond and has won at the track seven times in the Cup Series. Only the King, Richard Petty, has more with eight. 2019 will probably not be any different as the younger Busch brother continues his winning ways.

However, Kevin Harvick came from four laps down last week to finish in the 13th spot. The No. 4 Ford Stewart – Haas Racing team may be on the brink of getting a handle on the new Mustang.

Another driver to keep an eye on is Martin Truex Jr. As mentioned above, he’s never won at Richmond but he has grabbed the poll and he finished third in the last race at the facility. The most impressive stat is that over the last five races Truex as led 675 laps.

Remaining Intertops' Odds for the 2019 Toyota Owners 400

 

Denny Hamlin+1000
Ryan Blaney+1200
Chase Elliott+1400
Clint Bowyer+2000
Kyle Larson+2200
Aric Almirola+2200
Kurt Busch+2200
Erik Jones+2800
Jimmie Johnson+3300
Daniel Suarez+6600
Austin Dillon+10000
Ryan Newman+10000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr+12500
Alex Bowman+12500
Matt Dibenedetto+15000
William Byron+20000

 

 

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