The Aussie Open Draw is “Hot off the Presses”, so let’s look at it and try to figure out who has a good draw, who has a bad draw, and who will be playing in the Finals in 2 weeks.
On the top of the draw, we have Nadal who is the top seed. You can get him at +505 to win it all. His first match is no walkover as he is playing one of our favorites Estrella Burgos, but in a way, it’s exactly what you want for a first-round match. You want a guy to push you a bit, maybe even win a set, but not win the match, and that is what will happen here. After that match, it really isn’t that bad of a draw. Isner in the 4th round is not that bad of an opponent, and he even has the pleasure of possibly seeing Cilic in the Quarterfinals, and except for the Open a few years back Marin hasn’t been playing that well outdoors on hard courts. The goods on Cilic are around 35 to 1, so no-one is really taking him too seriously here. Nadal needs to be healthy and he will be in the Semifinals. The only possible guys to pull off an upset here are all baseliners and those are the types of guys Nadal loves to play.
Then it may get interesting for Rafa as Dimitrov could be waiting in the Semis as the number 3 seed. Grigor was not too upset with the fact that hat he lost to Kyrgios in Brisbane as he still feels like he can do some damage here. His odds are +750. He has a lot of qualifiers close to him early on, so he better be ready to play because the qualifiers always come in match tough and ready. The 4th round is where it may get a bit tricky as the US Open Finalist Kevin Anderson +5500 or Kyrgios +1250 could be waiting. Kyrgios is a very strange character as he could win this thing or lose to a nobody. Let’s say for argument's sake that Grigor and Nick do meet, you would have to make the Bulgarian a slight favorite and this time; I’m pretty sure he wins the match. In the quarters, he is slated to meet Jack Sock +5500 and I’m sure Grigor is very happy to see Sock in his Quarter.
Now to the other side and Thiem +2450 is right there at the top as the 5th seed. We really love this guy’s game and the odds are really good, if you are looking for a dark horse, he is your man. In the 4th round, there is a very interesting opponent who could be waiting and his name is Stan Wawrinka +4050.We love Stan and know he could go all the way here, but hasn’t played much in the last 6 months and we will definitely be betting Thiem if the 2 guys meet, so let’s put Thiem in the Quarters here. As far as who will be in the other Quarterfinals that section is loaded, as Djokovic +525 comes in as the 14th seed based on his ranking. There are guys like Monfils +9050 in the second round and of course, Zverev +1050 as the 4th seed are also stumbling blocks for him. This is a tough section to call, but if Novak stumbles we still feel a guy like Thiem would have the edge over Zverev or anyone else. We are putting Dominic in the Semis here.
In the bottom section Roger Federer +185. The oddsmakers like Federer to win this whole thing. Last year’s champ is defying “Old Age” and just may do it again. He shouldn’t have any real problems thru the first 3 rounds, Gasquet is the only tough player in this section. In the next section, there are guys like Querry +10000, Del Potro +1650 and Raonic +3550 hanging around. The highest seed in this section is David Goffin +1250 and the little Belgian has the perfect game to reach the Semifinals. There are also other very dangerous floaters here such as guys like Berdych and Fognini. This is anyone’s section to win. If I was Roger, however, I’d be hoping that Del Potro doesn’t get thru because he is always a thorn in Rogers side. There are too many dangerous players in this section for Roger to just sail into the Semis as he did last year. We are picking Goffin to be semifinalist here.
That would give us one Semifinal of Nadal vs. Dimitrov and another Semifinal of Goffin vs. Thiem. In a weird way, the Australian Open plays very much like the French Open in that the baseliners have a huge advantage as the old car tire that under the court (literally, I’m not kidding), give the courts a very high bounce and that would give Thiem and Nadal a big advantage here. Goffin likes to hit a bit flatter as does Dimitrov. We are looking forward to a Finals of Nadal vs. Thiem, and the young Austrian can beat anyone on any given day. This could be his time as he has been knocking on the door for a year Australian Open has a history of Slam. Thiem is young enough, healthy enough and certainly has the firepower and “guts” to win this thing. We are calling up America’s Bookie right now and pouting some money on him at around odds of 25 to 1. Also, put a few bucks on Dimitrov as it could be his time as well, and throw in David Goofin so you have 3 good “horses’ that you can watch and enjoying them playing. We will be back in few days guys to look at what has happened in the first round and look at the second round. Take care guys.