2020 NFC Conference Championship | Today’s Free Pick Against the Spread

It is championship weekend for the respective conferences in the NFL. One team from each side will get a chance to play for the ultimate goal that is the Super Bowl. In the AFC, the Chiefs are currently sitting as a 7-point favorite over the upstart Titans in what could be a high scoring game with a total at 52.

While the early course is sure to entertain, my focus here will be on the late game for the NFC Championship. The Green Bay Packers have traveled across the country to take on the San Francisco 49ers. Can future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers lead the Packers once again to the promised land or will San Fran continue their surprise domination to the big one?

 


Game: Green Bay Packers (14-3, 11-6 ATS) at San Francisco 49ers (14-3, 10-6-1 ATS)

When: 6:40 PM ET, Sunday, January 19th, 2020

Where: Levi Stadium in Santa Clara, CA

Current Line: 49ers -7.5    Total: 46.5

TV Coverage: Fox


 

The game is a rematch from back in November when the Packers were thumped by the 49ers 37-8 in one of Packer quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ worst performances as a pro.


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Green Bay enters the contest after holding on to beat the Seattle Seahawks 28-23 in a game they led from start to finish. The Packer offense was led by Aaron Rodgers who threw for 243 yards and 2 touchdowns, and Aaron Jones who rushed for 2 touchdowns.

The defense also showed up to play as they sacked the hard to reach Russell Wilson 5 times in the game.

 


NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME PREVIEW - GB @ SF


 

The 49ers dominated while never trailing the Vikings as they clamped down in the 2nd half and won 27-10. The 49er attack was led by Tevin Coleman who rushed for over 100 yards and 2 scores. The defense was also stifling, allowing an average of just 3.3 yards per play.

Both teams enter the contest in good shape health-wise with no major injuries reported.

When handicapping conference championship games the very first thing I look at is which team has the better defense or allowed the fewest points.

Since 1970, there have been 98 games played. If you had blindly played the team that allowed fewer points you would have gone 61-33-3 ATS since the start. It, of course, is not a blind play just following this simple trend but it is a good starting point when looking at the games.

This game looks to be a rough one for the Packers. While their defense is not bad, it even looks good against some of the lesser teams. San Francisco's defense is legit and has made plenty of good offenses, including this Packer group, look outclassed over the year.

The Packers on the road have often struggled against elite defenses with a success rate of just 39% and a below-average point total compared to home. I just can't see the Packers putting up more than 13 to 17 points unless they are gifted a few turnovers.

It's possible of course, but not something I want to factor into a number I'm making for a game. I'll take the 49ers here laying the 7.5 as just can't see Rodgers getting it going versus that defense.

2020 NFC Conference Championship Free Pick Against the Spread: San Francisco 49ers -7.5

Pick by Jarvis

About the Author

Jarvis Mahogany is a life long sports fanatic and long time gambler from Miami, Fla. His love of sports in shared/inherited from his father and two siblings who share the same sentiment. His willingness to gamble enabled him to produce a successful business in rental property and land development while maintaining a passion for sports gambling that continues to this day.

Moving to Atlanta, GA in early teens he picked up his first parlay cards and it was love at first sight. While obtaining a Bachelors Degree from the University of Georgia (Go Dawgs!) he became the go to source for all things gambling among family and friends. A tradition that still carries on to this day.

With a focus primarily on offshore books he has spent years learning the ins and out of the industry and is always wiling to share tips or ideas for others. In addition, he has a great deal of knowledge in maximizing money in the offshore industry thru use of bonuses, contest and promotions.

His belief is that any success and longevity in this industry is directly related to value on wagers. His opinion is not getting +EV on the majority of your wagers is the quickest way to get and stay in the red in this industry.

Jarvis Mahogany currently resides in Atlanta, GA.