The American League Divisional Series begin Thursday as the White Sox travel to Houston and the Red Sox will be in Tampa. Here’s a look at the 2021 MLB ALDS odds, picks, and betting preview.
Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros Series Prediction
Series Odds: White Sox (+106) vs. Astros (-124)
The popular pick here is Houston, but Chicago has one of the most talented teams in the majors. Remember, they played long stretches of the regular season without Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez arguably their two best players.
Then, there is the pitching staff. Carlos Rodon, Lance Lynn, Dylan Cease, and Lucas Giolito all recorded winning records with double-digit victories. The bullpen is one of the best in baseball with Craig Kimbrel, Michael Kopech, and Garrett Crochet. Rodon is the wild card as he dealt with some shoulder issues late in the season.
Houston is built similarly. Three players – Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Kyle Tucker – have 30 or more home runs and, as a team, the Astros bat .267. That’s the best in baseball. The pitching is solid with Lance McCullers Jr. (13-5) and Zack Greinke (11-6) leading the way. McCullers is in the Cy Young discussion, but he led the majors in walks allowed (76). He did keep the ball in the park though with only 0.7HR/9. McCullers will start Game 1.
The Astros won the season series 5-2 sweeping a four-game series back in mid-June. You have to like what Chicago did in winning six of its last seven games. The White Sox averaged 6.5 runs per game in those six wins.
Houston has the home-field advantage and the experience. This is the Astros fifth straight trip to the postseason. They lost last year in the ALCS and in the World Series in 2019. That experience goes a long way.
PREDICTION: ASTROS (-124)
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Series Prediction
Series Odds: Red Sox (+125) vs. Rays (-150)
These two teams are essentially evenly matched. The Rays won the season series 11-8 with a run differential of +2 (106 to 104). While the Red Sox lineup is littered with stars, Tampa Bay is the definition of team. The Rays are consistent at the plate and have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball.
The Rays do have a star in the making in SS Wander Franco who hit .288 with seven homers and 39 RBIs in 70 games this season. Randy Arozarena is the likely AL Rookie of the Year after hitting .274 with 20 homers and 20 stolen bases. Brandon Lowe and his 39 homers is the closest thing Tampa Bay has to a star.
Boston, on the other hand, has a lineup full of stars – Xander Bogaerts (.295, 23 HR), JD Martinez (.286, 28 HR, 99 RBI), Rafael Devers (.279, 38 HR, 113 RBI), and Hunter Renfroe (.259, 31 HR, 96 RBI). Then there is the pitching staff. Eduardo Rodrigquez led the team with 13 wins. Nathan Eovaldi won 11 plus the wild card game against the Yankees and the Red Sox got Chris Sale (5-1) back toward the end of the regular season.
Where Tampa Bay has a distinct advantage is in the bullpen. The Rays bullpen ERA of 3.29 ranks third in the majors. Boston’s relievers have had some issues and rank 13 th at 3.99. A Red Sox lead will not be as safe as a Rays lead. While there is value on Boston as an underdog, they will have a tough time beating Tampa Bay.
PREDICTION: RAYS (-150)
Read our MLB strikeouts props, MLB home run props and MLB total bases props betting guides.
