In each of the past two NFL seasons, Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry has either won or shared the league’s rushing touchdown title. Last season, Henry owned it by himself scoring 17 times. In 2019, he shared the title with Green Bay Packers RB Aaron Jones.
Not surprisingly, both are among the top ten favorites to lead the league in rushing touchdowns in 2021. Is there a running back that can surpass Henry?
The Leaders
The safe bet, of course, is on Henry at +450. With two straight rushing TD titles to his name, a third makes sense. Henry has increased his rushing yard and rushing TD totals in each of his five NFL seasons. He ran for 12 in 2018, 16 in 2019, and 17 last year. He also became just the eighth player in NFL history to rush for over 2,000 yards (2,027).
Also listed at +450 is Minnesota RB Dalvin Cook. The Vikings running back established career-highs in carries (312), yards (1,557), yards per carry (5.0), and rushing touchdowns (16) in 2020. Like Tennessee, the Vikings are an offense that relies on its running game which makes Cook a solid bet here.
Other Top Contenders
The Cleveland Browns (148.4) finished third in rushing yards per game last season and a big part of that was because of RB Nick Chubb (+800). Head coach Kevin Stefanski understands the importance of a running game and will once again utilize Chubb and Kareem Hunt, who may take away a few of Chubb’s touchdowns.
Christian McCaffrey (+800) is a touchdown machine, but he is also a big part of the Carolina passing game. Several of his scores will come through the air. Keep that in mind. Also listed at +800 is Colts RB Johnathan Taylor. He is an intriguing prospect because he will be the go-to back running behind what is the NFL’s best offensive line.
Potential Sleepers
Alvin Kamara (+1400) and Ezekiel Elliott (+1500) are two veteran NFL backs who have spent plenty of time finding the end zone. New Orleans lost QB Drew Brees to retirement , so they may have to rely more on Kamara and the running game. The Dallas Cowboys had an awful season last year and Elliott enjoyed his worst season as a pro. He could enjoy a rebound season in 2021.
Jones, who tied with Henry for the most rushing TDs in 2019, is also an interesting prospect at +1800. With all of the offseason hub-bub concerning QB Aaron Rodgers, Jones could become the focal point of the offense.
The most interesting sleeper in the category may be Kansas City’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The Chiefs can score and Edwards-Helaire is a big part of that scoring. Kansas City isn’t one of the top rushing offenses in the league and they did lost All-Pro OT Eric Fisher, but Edwards-Helaire at +4000 could be a surprise. Read our Chiefs team preview 2021.
2021 Most NFL Rushing TDs Prediction
As mentioned, the safe pick is Henry. He is durable and he is going to carry the ball over 300 times again (barring injury) in 2021. Even though Henry will be in the mix, the better value is on the Colts’ Taylor. After taking over for Marlon Mack, Taylor wound up rushing for 1,169 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2020. As the starter, he’ll see more carries and with that offensive line in front of him and head coach Frank Reich’s commitment to the run, Taylor at +800 is the best bet.
2021 Most NFL Rushing TDs Betting Lines
Derrick Henry +450
Dalvin Cook +450
Nick Chubb +800
Christian McCaffrey +800
Johnathan Taylor +800
Alvin Kamara +1400
Ezekiel Elliott +1500
Antonio Gibson +1800
Aaron Jones +1800
Saquon Barkley +1800
J.K. Dobbins +2000
Josh Jacobs +2800
Chris Carson +2800
Kyler Murray +2800
Mike Davis +3500
Jalen Hurts +3500
Clyde Edwards-Helaire +4000
Najee Harris +4000
Darrell Henderson Jr. +4000
Joe Mixon +4000
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