The tight end position has become so much more important in the passing game over the past decade. It has become such an integral piece of NFL offenses that it is no longer a surprise when a tight end catches 100 or more passes in a season.
Kansas City’s Travis Kelce (105) eclipsed the 100-reception mark for the second time in his career last season. Las Vegas TE Darren Waller did the same with 107. Can either duplicate their production of a year ago?
Here’s a look at the best NFL TE receptions props for the 2021 season.
Travis Kelce Over 100.5 Receptions (-120)
Kansas City Chiefs Team Preview 2021
Kelce is the best of the modern tight ends in today’s game. He is big, fast, and athletic. He caught 105 passes for a career-high 1,416 yards and a career-best 11 touchdowns last season as the Chiefs made it back to the Super Bowl but lost out on consecutive championships to Tampa Bay.
Kelce’s reception numbers over the last three seasons are outstanding – 103, 97, and 105. He hasn’t missed a game in the past six seasons and, remember, Kelce will have the advantage of an extra game in 2021. The Chiefs and the rest of the NFL play 17 games instead of 16 this season.
Over the last three seasons, Kelce is averaging right around 6.5 catches per game. Even if the Chiefs sit their starters in Week 18 (as they did in Week 17 last season), Kelce would surpass this total easily.
Darren Waller Over 95.5 Receptions (-115)
Las Vegas Raiders Team Preview 2021
While Waller had his share of issues early in his career, he has certainly proven worthy of being one of the NFL’s top tight ends over the past two seasons. He started all 16 games in 2019 and 15 last year surpassing the 1,000-yard receiving mark in both seasons. The 107 catches a year ago were a career high.
In the past two seasons, Waller has averaged 98.5 receptions per season. Head coach Jon Gruden likes to utilize the tight end and Waller’s usage rate shouldn’t decline in 2021. Again, he will have the benefit of an extra game which is why the Over is the best bet here.
T.J. Hockenson Under 77.5 Receptions (-115)
Detroit Lions Team Preview 2021
Hockenson was a highly touted prospect out Iowa in 2019. Detroit selected him with the No. 8 pick in the draft and Hockenson has turned out to be a very good tight end with tremendous upside. The problem is that he plays in Detroit.
The Lions downgraded at quarterback where Jared Goff is now the starter. Unless new head coach Dan Campbell places a significant emphasis on throwing more to the tight end, don’t expect Hockenson to hit this number.
Last season, the former Iowa star started all 16 games and had 67 catches. Over a career 28 games, Hockenson is averaging 3.54 catches per game. He would need to hit 4.84 per game over 16 games and 4.55 over 17 games. That is not likely to happen.
Logan Thomas Over 65.5 Receptions (-115)
Washington Football Team Preview 2021
Thomas is one of the great stories in the NFL. Drafted in 2014 as a quarterback, Thomas bounced around the league until he tried playing tight end while in Buffalo in 2017. He finally found his home in Washington last year starting 15 games at tight end and recording a career-high 72 catches for 670 yards and six touchdowns. With tremendous upside and ability, Thomas can surpass 65.5 receptions in 2021 even without the benefit of an extra game.
George Kittle Over 82.5 Receptions (-120)
San Francisco 49ers Team Preview 2021
If there is a tight end that can rival Kelce for the mold of the modern tight end, it is the 49ers’ Kittle. If he stays healthy in 2021, Kittle will easily surpass 82.5 catches for the season. He played in just eight games last year and totaled 48 catches for 634 yards.
The previous two seasons, Kittle was healthy and recorded 88 catches in 2018 and 85 in 2019 (in just 14 games). Kittle would need to average just over five catches a game to surpass this year’s season total. He has done that in the seasons in which he has been healthy.
