Can Ross Chastain defend his win at COTA? Oddsmakers seem to think he’ll be in the mix when the NASCAR Cup Series drops the green flag on the 2023 EchoPark Automotive Texas Grand Prix. This is the first road course race of the season and one of the best road racers in the sport is not going to be in the field. Chase Elliott is still recovering from his leg injury.
That means some other drivers with road course wins are rising to the top of the odds list this week as can be expected. Chastain comes in at +800 along with Kyle Busch. Kyle Larson comes in as the lone favorite at +650. NASCAR has only raced at the Circuit of the Americas twice and Chastain is the only driver with a Cup win at the track.
Here are the favorite drivers to win the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix outright:
Kyle Larson +650
Kyle Busch +800
Ross Chastain +800
Tyler Reddick +900
William Byron +1200
AJ Allmendinger +1200
A quick look at the list above shows one thing – oddsmakers are leaning heavily on drivers that have won on road courses in the past. Every one of the favorites listed above has road course wins on their Cup Series resume. That’s except for William Byron who enters at +1200 with AJ Allmendinger who is often considered one of the best road racers in NASCAR.
Byron is added to the mix due to his success this season. So far in 2023, he’s won twice as he went back- to-back at Las Vegas and then at Phoenix. His race ended early last week at Atlanta when he was caught up in one of the wrecks and posted a 32nd-place run.
Kyle Larson comes in as the favorite, partly because of Elliott being out of the car again this week. Also, he’s won several times on road courses this season. But he does have a fade coming into this race weekend. So far this season Larson has exited two races early due to being caught up in wrecks. It looks like oddsmakers may be pushing that fact to the side as he also has a 4th and 2nd-place finish before the Atlanta crash last weekend.
2023 EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix Preview
Date: Saturday, March 26, 2022, 3:30 pm EST
Track: Circuit of the Americas, Austin, Texas
Type: Road, asphalt, 3.426 miles, 20 turns
Race Distance: 68 laps
Defending Track Winner: Ross Chastain
TV/Radio: FOX/SiriusXM/PRN local affiliates
2023 EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix Predictions
Kyle Busch +800
Kyle Busch has already won this year, and he posted a strong finish last week in Atlanta where he posted a 10th-place finish. He also fed a handful of laps while staying toward the front for much of the day. During the first Cup Series race at COTA in 2021 he led 12 laps which was the second-best on the day. He also won the Xfinity Series race at the same track that season. Last season at COTA he posted a 28th- place run and that’s about the time we started hearing rumors that he may be ready to move on from Joe Gibbs Racing. He’s now in a Chevy with Richard Childress.
Christopher Bell +1400
Christopher Bell could be my green flag pick this week as he’s become a good road racer in the NASCAR Cup Series. So far he’s won twice on this type of track in a Cup car and has seven finishes inside the top ten out of fifteen road course starts. He also has won on a road course in the NASCAR Xfinity Series. Bell has put together a strong season so far with four top-ten runs out of five races in 2023. So far he’s finished 3rd at Daytona, crashed at Fontana, then 5th, 6th, and 3rd last weekend in Atlanta.
Joey Logano +1100
Joey Logano may not be the obvious pick this weekend but he’s worth taking a glance at because of one huge stat. In 2021 he lead the most laps at COTA and he finished 4! He then went on to finish that year’s race in 3rd place and probably could have done better if the race was not shortened due to the rain. Logano has a road race win under his belt and he’s racked up 17 top-ten road course finishes in his Cup Series career and he’s coming off a win last week.
Others to Consider: Tyler Reddick (+900) has two road course wins in a Cup Car and has had a great season. However, he’s had two DNFs this year. Other than that, he’s improved every weekend. Plus Toyota drivers have not won a Cup Race at COTA. The only reason why I’m not more excited about Martin Truex Jr (+3000) this weekend, aside from Toyota not having won yet at COTA, is that he’s been a bit up and down this year. But he does have 4 road course wins in a Cup Car.
2023 EchoPark Grand Prix Betting Lines
Kyle Larson +650
Kyle Busch +800
Ross Chastain +800
Tyler Reddick +900
William Byron +1200
AJ Allmendinger +1200
Christopher Bell +1400
Austin Cindric +1400
Ryan Blaney +1600
Alex Bowman +1800
Denny Hamlin +2500
Chase Briscoe +2500
Joey Logano +2500
Brad Keselowski +3000
Kevin Harvick +3000
Martin Truex Jr +3000
Chris Buescher +3300
Michael McDowell +3300
Jordan Taylor +4000
Kimi Räikkönen +4500
Erik Jones +5000
Jimmie Johnson +5000
Ty Gibbs +5000
Darrell Wallace Jr. +6000
Austin Dillon +8000
Jenson Button +9000
Aric Almirola +10000
Todd Gilliland +10000
Ryan Preece +10000
Noah Gragson +10000
Justin Haley +12500
Harrison Burton +20000
Corey Lajoie +30000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +50000
Conor Daly +70000
Cody Ware +70000
Josh Bilicki +100000
Ty Dillon +100000
