As many of you have likely heard already, Arch Manning committed to the Texas Longhorns last week.
The news sent shockwaves through the college football world. Manning is the #1 college football recruit in the 2023 class. He’s only one of seven prospects to score a perfect 1.0000 rating from 247Sports.
Only two QBs have received perfect scores previously, Vince Young and Quinn Ewers.
What’s even more interesting, Ewers transferred to Texas last December from Ohio State.
Ewers hasn’t been named the starter for the Longhorns for the upcoming season yet, but all signs point to him being the starting QB in 2022. If he performs well, he’d likely remain the starter in 2023.
Online sportsbooks are already starting to get in on the action. BetOnline has released multiple prop bets and we’re going to analyze those markets to see if there’s any value in betting on them.
Will Arch Manning Start Game 1 As a True Freshman?
Odds: Yes (-200) vs. No (+150)
It has already been reported that Manning isn’t expecting to start from day 1. It’s a real possibility that Arch doesn’t play during the 2023 season if Ewers produces as expected in Texas.
Things can change quickly in college football, but our money is on Manning not starting as a true freshman. This would allow Manning to learn the system and personnel for a year with no pressure.
If Ewers struggles or gets injured in 2023, Manning would be ready to jump into the starting role, but if things go as planned with Ewers, it’s unlikely we’ll see Manning play at all during the 2023 season.
Best Bet: No (+150)
College Football Betting Lines
Will Arch Manning Redshirt His Freshman Year?
Odds: Yes (+700) vs. No (-2000)
This prop betting market is interesting and there’s definitely value on the “yes” at 7/1 odds.
There have been reports out of Texas that Manning could redshirt in 2023 and then become the starter the following year after Ewers heads to the NFL draft. However, that’s definitely not a guarantee.
Ewers needs to have the Longhorns contending for the Big 12 Championship or there’s going to be a lot of fans and boosters wanting Manning to jump into the starting QB role during his freshman year.
We still think these odds are off and there’s value in betting on Manning redshirting.
Texas and Oklahoma are moving to the SEC. The plan was to move ahead of the 2025 season, but it may happen sooner, which would mean Manning could redshirt and then start for Texas in the SEC.
Best Bet: Yes (+700)
Will Arch Manning Be Drafted #1 Overall?
Odds: Yes (+135) vs. No (-175)
This market is simply too tough to predict at this point and there’s not much value in the market yet.
Manning isn’t eligible to enter the NFL draft until 2026 and so many things can happen in that time. He may struggle in Texas, he could get injured or he simply may not be valued at the top of the draft.
Manning is going to be drafted, but predicting he’ll be the #1 pick at this point is too tough. If you’re going to bet on this market, we recommend “no” at the moment, but we’re also not betting on this prop yet.
There will be plenty of opportunities to bet on this market closer to when he’s eligible and it’s unlikely the odds will sway in either direction that much in the next couple years.
