We don’t necessarily like “dancing in the end zone” too much, but we should mention that we were able to hit all five player props from Monday’s games.
Now it’s a whole new day, and we are going to use the same criteria we used yesterday – we are going to focus on the most important thing in baseball – the most basic thing, if you will – which is the pitcher vs. batter matchup.
As we have said before, some guys do better than others against certain opponents, and when we say that we mean the one-on-one opponent.
And in this “episode,” we’ll cover a couple of former MVP’s, and, who knows, maybe the 2021 AL MVP as well.
Top Baseball Player Props for July 27th
Nationals vs. Phillies Prediction
BRYCE HARPER (Philadelphia Phillies) OVER 1.5 TOTAL BASES (-105)
Opponent: WASHINGTON NATIONALS (starter – Eric Fedde)
Time: 7:05 PM ET
Don’t think we don’t understand that Harper may only get a chance to face Fedde twice in this game. And we are well aware that any walks he gathers don’t count toward this total.
But it’s hard to ignore the ease in which Harper has handled Fedde. In 15 official at bats (he’s walked four times), he has six hits, and four of them have been homers. That accounts for the 1.200 slugging and 1.726 OPS.
Harper hasn’t exactly terrorized his old teammates (.270 average, eight homers), but he has definitely terrorized this pitcher.
Brewers vs. Pirates Prediction
CHRISTIAN YELICH (Milwaukee Brewers) UNDER 0.5 HITS (+180)
Opponent: PITTSBURGH PIRATES (starter – Tyler Anderson)
Time: 7:05 PM ET
That was a pretty nice outing for Tyler Anderson against the Brewers on the Fourth of July, as he blanked them over seven innings, allowing just three hits. Yelich, who only got into that game as a pinch-hitter, has obviously not played his best baseball as of yet, as he’s hitting .235.
But he has not experienced much success against Anderson in the past. Yelich has two hits in eleven at bats, and he’s walked only once,which is unusual, considering he’s drawn 50 walks this season. This is a price worth taking.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Prediction
VLADIMIR GUERRERO JR. (Toronto Blue Jays) OVER 1.5 TOTAL BASES (-140)
Opponent: BOSTON RED SOX (starter – Garrett Richards)
Time: 7:05 PM ET
Maybe this seems like a close one, but I wouldn’t want to bet against Guerrero in this situation, even though other Jays sluggers, including Bo Bichette, may deserve some consideration.
We can tell you with certainty that Guerrero has been something less than a pleasure for Richards to deal with. In nine official at bats, the son of the Hall of Famer has six hits, and four of them have gone for extra bases. Young Vlad is always a threat to “go off” in a game, and in Richards’ start against the BoSox a week ago, he gave up three round-trippers in less than six innings.
HUNTER RENFROE (Boston Red Sox) UNDER 0.5 HITS (+125)
Opponent: TORONTO BLUE JAYS (starter – Robbie Ray)
Time: 7:05 PM ET
When you think about the ultimate “feast or famine” guy against the hard-throwing Robbie Ray, it’s got to be Hunter Renfroe, who has stepped to the plate 32 times against him in the major leagues. Ray has struck him out 14 times. Renfroe has all of three hits, but guess what? All of them have been for homers!
Of course, this is not the homer prop but the hit prop, and there’s value here that Renfroe comes up empty. By the way, for those of you who are interested, another member of this Red Sox team, Denny Santana, has three career hits against Ray, and all of them are homers as well. But he’s on the IL, so he’s one less guy for Ray to worry about.
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