Just like that, we’re down to eight teams remaining in the quest for the Super Bowl LV championship. Last week, Coach Rick identified two of three moneyline underdogs winners – Cleveland and the Los Angeles Rams.
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The Browns won their first playoff game since 1995 and their first road postseason game since 1969. The Rams defense was simply outstanding and was the catalyst that caused Los Angeles to win on the road in Seattle.
When Wild Card weekend was over, the No. 2 seeds in each conference – Buffalo and New Orleans – won, but the lower-seeded teams won all the remaining games. That’s not likely to happen again in the divisional round, but there is a pair of moneyline underdogs to back.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills Picks
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Coach Rick liked Tennessee as a home dog last week, but the Ravens proved too much. The defense did a number on NFL rushing leader Derrick Henry and Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson ran for 136 yards and a touchdown to help the Ravens advance.
Now, it’s on to Buffalo where the Bills should be scared. Surprisingly, the two best ATS records in the NFL are held by these two teams at 11-6. That may be where the similarities end. The big difference between the two teams is on defense.
Baltimore finished the regular season ranked No. 2 in scoring defense allowing opponents just 18.9 points per game. The Ravens were also seventh in total defense (329.8 ypg). In last week’s win over Indianapolis, Buffalo allowed 472 total yards by the Colts.
Where the Bills excel is in the passing game with quarterback Josh Allen. The third-year pro passed for two touchdowns and ran for a third in last week’s win over Indianapolis. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs led the NFL in receptions and receiving yards this season. Diggs had six catches for 128 yards and a touchdown last week.
The difference maker in this game will be Jackson, who fares extremely well when he is a road underdog. Against the spread, Jackson is 4-1 as a road dog and with how well Baltimore has been playing – the Ravens have won six straight – as of late, Baltimore is primed to make the road upset.
Best Moneyline Pick: Baltimore +120
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints Picks
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The Rams defense can only carry the team so far. Going up against Green Bay with an injured quarterback just doesn’t appeal to Coach Rick. What does appeal though is future Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady against this year’s Bucs’ nemesis New Orleans.
Tampa Bay is 12-3 this year against teams not named the Saints. New Orleans has beaten Tampa Bay twice this season by an average score of 36-13. In the latest game between the two teams, the Saints won 38-3. In fact, the Bucs haven’t beaten New Orleans since the 2018 season.
It’s also very hard to bet against the other future Hall of Fame quarterback in this game, Drew Brees. That said, it should be noted that the Bucs have won their last five straight and their last six road games. Tom Brady adds another playoff win to his very large belt.
Best Moneyline Pick: Tampa Bay +150
