The biggest news out of Kansas City in advance of Sunday’s AFC championship game is that Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes will play. Mahomes suffered a concussion in last week’s divisional round playoff win over Cleveland, but he has cleared protocols.
Where to Bet on the NFL Conference Championships
Kansas City is a 3-point favorite, but with a less-than-100-percent Mahomes bettors should consider the red-hot Bills at +3. Buffalo is 9-1 ATS in their last ten games.
In addition, there are a number of great prop bets for Sunday’s game. Here’s a look at the best prop bets for the AFC championship game.
NFL Moneylines, Point Spreads and Totals Odds
First Play of the Game Prop Bet
It’s no secret that both the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills rely heavily on the passing game. In fact, the teams ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in pass offense during the regular season. In last week’s divisional round game, Buffalo only ran the ball 16 times.
Surprisingly, you can find this first play prop at +110 for a pass. Take it.
Bet on the First Score
First score is always a popular prop bet and with two of the most prolific offenses in the NFL, one would expect a touchdown to be scored first. In each of Buffalo’s playoff games though, it was a field goal that was the first score of the game.
A Chiefs passing touchdown is listed at +250, but with Mahomes’ status unknown bettors might want to lean on the Bills and a passing touchdown at +350. Plus, Kansas City had the worst opponent red zone touchdown conversion rate (76.6 percent) in the NFL this season.
NFL Player Props Betting Guide
Josh Allen Player Props
Buffalo has been on a roll the latter half of the season and QB Josh Allen has been a big reason why. Now, there isn’t much value in betting on Allen’s passing yards or passing touchdowns. Allen throwing for at least three scores is listed at +125. Allen has thrown for 37 touchdowns, but he’s only thrown for three or more scores four times in the last 12 games.
The better play on Allen is a player performance double. Allen throwing for 250 or more yards and a Buffalo upset victory will pay out at +163. Allen threw for at least 250 yards in 11 of 16 regular season games.
Cole Beasley Player Props
With all the attention on NFL leading receiver Stefon Diggs of the Bills, it will be Cole Beasley who will step up and play a big role on Sunday. Beasley missed Weeks 16 and 17 of the regular season, but caught seven passes against Indianapolis in the wild card game. He did not catch a pass last week.
Beasley had five 100-yard receiving games during the season and caught four passes for 45 yards in the Bills loss to the Chiefs during the regular season. Beasley catching one touchdown pass or more is listed at +225 and that is worth the risk.
The Chiefs will be all over Diggs, who will still get his catches, but the X-factor on Sunday will be Beasley.
NFL Conference Championship ATS Picks
Both Teams Over 19.5
The final game prop to check out is related to point totals for each team. Two of the top scoring offenses in the league match up on Sunday, but will both score over 19.5 points?
The “NO” is listed at +166 and with Mahomes not cleared to play yet this is another bet worthy of at least a small wager. Even if Mahomes plays, he won’t be 100 percent and he might not finish the game.
As prolific as the Chiefs offense is, it has scored 17, 21, and 22 points in its last three games.
