The 2023 March Madness tournament is here and the first round is always crazy with the potential for huge upsets. We’re going to analyze the match-ups and find the best March Madness upset picks.
The first round of the tournament will run from Thursday, March 16th to Friday, March 17th 2023.
Here are the top four first round upset picks to bet on or use for your 2023 March Madness brackets:
Furman vs. Virginia Predictions
When: Thursday, March 16th 2023 at 12:40 PM ET
Best Bet: Furman ML (+195)
No #13 seeds defeated a #5 seed last year, but two #13 seeds advanced out of the first round in 2021 and #13 Furman (27-7) will look to eliminate #5 Virginia (25-7) in one of the first games on Thursday.
Virginia only allow 60.3 PPG (5th), but they allow opponents to shoot 34.0% from deep (173rd). Furman average 9.4 3-pointers per game (18th). The Cavaliers only score 67.8 PPG (253rd). If the Paladins are hitting their shots, they could cruise to victory, as Virginia aren’t built to play from behind.
Boise State vs. Northwestern Predictions
Boise State vs. Northwestern Preview
When: Thursday, March 16th 2023 at 7:35 PM ET
Best Bet: Boise State ML (+105)
#10 Boise State (24-9) could have been given a higher seed. They rank #31 on the Pomeroy ratings, while #7 Northwestern (21-11) rank #42 at KenPom. Both teams play great defense, as Northwestern allow 62.5 PPG (16th) and Boise State allow 64.7 PPG (32nd).
Boise State have the edge in scoring (71.7 PPG vs. 67.7 PPG). The Broncos are also better from beyond the arc (36.0% vs. 32.1%). Three #10 seeds have advanced out of the first round the last two years.
Penn State vs. Texas A&M Predictions
Penn State vs. Texas A&M Preview
When: Thursday, March 16th 2023 at 9:55 PM ET
Best Bet: Penn State ML (+130)
#10 Penn State (22-13) are on an 8-2 run and one of those losses was a 2-point loss to Purdue (67-65) in the Big Ten tournament final. #7 Texas A&M (25-9) lost to Alabama (82-63) in the SEC tournament final.
Look for the Nittany Lions to pull off the upset on Thursday night. Jalen Pickett will be the best player on the court. He leads Penn State in points (17.9 PPG), rebounds (7.3 RPG), assists (6.7 APG) and steals (1.0 SPG). This will be another close game, but the underdog has a great shot at cashing.
Drake vs. Miami Predictions
When: Friday, March 17th 2023 at 7:25 PM ET
Best Bet: Drake ML (+115)
#5 Miami Hurricanes (25-7) are coming off a loss to Duke (85-78) in the ACC tournament SFs. Miami are 3-1 against ranked opponents. Norchad Omier (13.6 PPG and 9.7 RPG) is questionable with an injury.
#12 Drake Bulldogs (27-7) won the MVC tournament and are on a 16-2 run. Drake only allow 64.4 PPG (31st) and will need to limit Miami’s offense (79.4 PPG – 19th). At least one #12 seed has advanced into the second round in 32 of the last 37 tournaments. Two #12 seeds won in the first round last year.
