Betting The ‘New Norm’ of the 2019-2020 NBA Season

In the blink of an eye, the entire complexion of the current NBA season changed. When a prominent player tested positive for the coronavirus, the league took swift action to shut everything down.

This was the right decision and you have to give all the credit in the world to NBA Commissioner Adam Silver for making it without any hesitation.

All Systems Down

The rest of the sports in the US quickly followed suit in a grand effort to slow down the spread to athletes and fans all across the country. Play has either been cancelled or postponed for every major sports league and sporting event for the foreseeable future.

The avid fan and the avid sports bettor is left to ponder what is next?


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When it comes to the NBA, a return to action this season is still in the plans.

The big question is when.

There are actually far more questions than answers right now.

However, the prop bet odds for a NBA game being played June 1 or earlier favors NO, at heavy -600 odds. The moneyline odds for YES are +350.

 


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The anticipated three month delay has also had a major impact on the online sportsbooks’ NBA futures odds to win this year’s championship.

Favorites are King

Three teams have been singled out as heavy favorites. The Milwaukee Bucks still top the list as +200 favorites to win followed by the Los Angeles Lakers (+225) and the Los Angeles Clippers (+300).

The odds dramatically fall off from there with the Boston Celtics and Houston Rockets rounding out the Top 5 at +2000 odds.

The rest of the Top 10 teams include the Toronto Raptors (+2500), Denver Nuggets (+2800), Philadelphia 76ers (+3300), Miami Heat (+4000) and Utah Jazz (+4000).

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The recently updated NBA futures odds suggest that the layoff will add value those top three teams.

Does mean that the Bucks, Lakers and Clippers will also be good teams to go with once play does resume?

Milwaukee was 53-12 straight-up with a 36-29 record against the spread. The Lakers won 49 of their first 63 games SU while going 35-27-1 ATS. The Clippers are 44-20 SU and 35-29 ATS.

The odds might suggest that regular season play will be completely suspended with the league starting back up with the opening round of the playoffs.

If that is the case, the value in betting the early games of any best-of-seven playoff series lean towards the favorites. The teams with the best individual players should prevail given the thick coat of rust that is going to be covering every NBA team.

Soft Total Lines

It is also interesting to speculate how this extended break impacts total line bets. Season-to-date, the total went OVER in 52.3 percent of the games played. Over the past 30 days of games, this trend basically remained constant.

Once play does resume, will all that rust impact shooting or defensive play? The top NBA scorers are going to do everything possible to keep their shooting touch sharp.

In the absence of team practices of other group activities, the rust is going to settle in on defensive play.

The line setters could have trouble settling into the NBA’s ‘new norm’ with their initial total lines. The lean could be towards the OVER on potentially softer numbers right out of the gate.

About the Author

A big part of the services that my marketing company, Blue Pointe Advisors, LLC offers is written content for sports betting websites.  I have been working as a full-time sports betting writer for the past nine years following a previous career in the field of sales and marketing.

I consider myself extremely fortunate to be able to write about my true passion in life; the world of sports. I also enjoy concentrating the bulk of my pieces towards the betting angle in sports.

It is always a challenge to take past results and current form to try and correctly determine a future result. Sports brings out the unpredictability in what should be a fairly predictable outcome based on the stats, facts and recent trends in a particular matchup. The one thing that I have learned over the past decade or so is that when it comes to betting on sports there is no such thing as a lock.

The main objective with my writing style is to create insightful articles on a wide variety of sporting topics that can provide an edge to today's sophisticated online player. While there are times when my predictions fall well short of the actual outcome, I still enjoy trying to come up with a logical explanation to support my views on every pick I make.

My love of sports started a long time ago when I was just a kid growing up just outside Philadelphia. While I was a big Phillies, Flyers and 76ers fan, my number one team was always the Eagles. My dad was a season ticket holder from 1961 to 2002 and I would honestly say that he missed less than a handful of games than more than a few dismal seasons.

I was fortunate enough to go to a number of Eagles’ games back in the day including the 1980 NFC Championship when Wilbert Montgomery ran roughshod over the bitter rival Dallas Cowboys to lead Philly to their first appearance in a Super Bowl. Flash forward 40 years later and am I still celebrating the thrilling victory over New England in Super Bowl LVII. I know that my dad was smiling down on that one.