For the third time in their four-year franchise existence, the Vegas Golden Knights will be competing in the semifinal round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Their opponent? A scrappy Montreal Canadiens bunch that backed into the playoffs but flipped the switch and might be the hottest team in the league.
Vegas advanced after beating the Minnesota Wild in seven games, then erasing a 2-0 series deficit to beat the Colorado Avalanche in six games. Similarly, the Canadiens were down 3-1 in the first round against the Toronto Maple Leafs but rallied to win the series, then swept the Winnipeg Jets in four games.
Game One of the semifinal series starts at 9:00 P.M. Eastern on Monday.
Canadiens vs. Golden Knights Series Odds
The Golden Knights are huge favorites to eliminate the Canadiens.
Montreal Canadiens (+395)
Vegas Golden Knights (-500)
The Golden Knights Will Win If…
The Golden Knights will win the series if they continue to frustrate opposing shooters with sound defensive positioning and quality goaltending. Marc-André Fleury is as good as it gets this time of year, currently second among playoff netminders with a 1.91 GAA, though his .923 save percentage could be a little higher.
Another major factor that can help Vegas win is continued depth scoring production. The Golden Knights have 19 skaters with at least two points this postseason, more than any other team (the next closest is the New York Islanders with 17). When every line is a threat to score, Vegas is tough to stop.
Finally, the Golden Knights will win if their special team’s units figure it out. Vegas’ power play is operating at a 14.3% rate this postseason, down from 17.8% in the regular season. They’ll be put to the test against Montreal’s PK unit, which has killed off an NHL-best 90.3% of penalties during the playoffs. The Golden Knights’ penalty kill can’t afford a slip-up either, already at a subpar 71.4% kill rate.
The Canadiens Will Win If…
Montreal has advanced so far through incredible resiliency and by playing a system where every player knows their role and doesn’t try to play outside that role. While the Canadiens rank in the middle of the pack in hits and blocked shots per game and near the bottom of the list in takeaways, they still manage to play a physical style that can wear on their opponents, as well as frustrate them into settling for poor shots.
Similar to Vegas, Montreal has seen some incredible goaltending from Carey Price, who has found his 2015 Hart Trophy-winning form just in time for a deep playoff run. Price leads all playoff goaltenders with a .935 save percentage, ranks third in GAA at 1.97, and he put up a shutout against Winnipeg. Ensuring Price has clean looks at shots with minimal traffic in front of the net is instrumental to Montreal’s success.
Finally, Montreal will win if the veterans lead the way. Tyler Toffoli, Eric Staal, and Corey Perry have all won a Stanley Cup before, but most of the rest of the team hasn’t; in fact, Canadiens winger Cole Caufield was 5-years-old when Staal won the Cup with the 2006 Carolina Hurricanes. For a relatively inexperienced team, leaning on those who have been there before will go a long way towards winning the series.
Canadiens vs. Golden Knights Series Prediction
This series should be a lot closer than regular-season metrics and analytics would indicate it may be. For example, Vegas finished tied for the best point total in the regular season, while the Canadiens had the lowest point total (59) and goal differential (-9) of any playoff team.
However, Montreal’s Cinderella story will come to an end against Vegas. While the Canadiens are a scrappy, fun team to watch that has far exceeded expectations, they are in over their heads against Vegas. Montreal may take a game in the series, but Vegas should make relatively quick work of things.
Series Prediction: Vegas Golden Knights in Five Games
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