We are deep into conference play in college hoops, with patterns developing and the cream rising to the top.
We’re laying some big numbers in this Wednesday parlay, but we are confident of it, and you can play it now at America’s Bookie!
Here we go:
Northwestern Wildcats at Wisconsin Badgers Picks
Northwestern vs. Wisconsin Game Preview
When: 9 PM ET (Big Ten Network)
College Basketball Odds: Wisconsin -10.5, Total 136.5
Wisconsin is a classic “3 and D” team that has hit 39% from beyond the arc and is fifth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are slow and deliberate, and are perfectly willing to move in that direction.
Obviously the Badgers have several significant wins under their belts. But we were interested in how they were going to react to the 77-54 beatdown they suffered at the hands of Michigan, in which they shot less than 31%. Well, they beat Rutgers, but only scored 60 points in the process, with 33% accuracy.
The defense held up their end of the bargain, holding the Scarlet Knights to just two-of-19 from three-point territory, and that becomes meaningful as we examine the case of Northwestern, which, after consecutive wins over Michigan State, Indiana and Ohio State, has lost five straight. The problem was less a matter of offense as it was defense. Along the way they allowed 86 points per game and 59 triples. producing an average losing margin of 18.4 points.
They’ve had an awful time trying to run with other teams. But I think maybe you have to ask yourself the question of whether you think Wisconsin is going to “get well” on offense before Northwestern does the same on the stop end.
We’d vote for Wisconsin.
Both of these teams take good care of the ball. And second-shot opportunities are not coming for these two relatively poor offensive rebounding clubs. That should greatly favor the better shooting squad. That’s the Badgers. So even though we have taken a long look at the total, we are going to lay the points.
The Play: WISCONSIN -10.5
Live NCAA Basketball Betting Lines
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Houston Cougars Picks
Tulsa vs. Houston Game Preview
When: 8 PM ET (ESPN Plus)
College Basketball Odds: Houston -12.5, Total 124.5
This one is a genuine revenge game for the eighth-ranked Cougars, who lost a heart-breaking 65-64 decision when these teams met on December 29. Houston took care of business on the offensive boards that night (16 rebounds), but when you’re making just four out of 21 three-pointers, you’re going to have a problem.
What you get with this Houston team – if you don’t mind us breaking out some numbers – is the nation’s fourth-ranked defense (measured by Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at KenPom), allowing just 25.6% from the arc, which is also in the top 20 in Offensive Efficiency as well, to a degree because they hit the offensive glass so well. Justin Gorham is a monster in that regard; he is averaging 4.8 offensive rebounds per game and has committed just seven turnovers in 334 minutes, and as a result he is ninth in the nation in individual Offensive Rating.
And coach Kelvin Sampson, who’s met with his share of controversies but has sixteen seasons of 20 or more wins under his belt, has been able to squeeze more than enough offense out of his backcourt in the wake of Caleb Mills (pre-season American Conference player of the year) leaving the team (transferring to Florida State). Quentin Grimes – who was a full-time starter as a true freshman previously at Kansas – is developing into one of the better offensive players in the country, and Marcus Sasser (who had 28 points in an earlier game against Tulane) has provided come three-point punch (37%).
If they are sufficiently motivated (and why shouldn’t they be?), these Cougars should be able to get some payback – with extreme prejudice.
The Play: HOUSTON -12.5
Fresno State Bulldogs at Boise State Broncos Picks
Fresno vs. Boise State Game Preview
When: 11 PM ET (FS1)
College Basketball Odds: Boise State -14, Total 140
The Broncos dropped their season opener to Houston 68-58, sealing their fate by missing fifteen of 16 shots from three-point range. Since then they have won twelve games in a row, albeit against lesser lights, but they did score a nice win in Provo over BYU. In this streak, that victory and another over San Jose State are the only ones that came by single digits.
There is a considerable defensive edge on the side of Boise, which can stop people on the inside (allowing 45.9% from two-point range) and out at the arc (yielding 29.2%). Fresno can’t from there anyway (29.5%) and they kill opportunities for themselves at the line (61% FT’s). They have ab effective seven-footer in Orlando Robinson (six double-doubles) but the Broncos can face him up with 6-10 Mladen Armus, who averages three offensive rebounds per contest.
Boise will stretch Fresno’s defense, for certain, with multiple three-point shooters (who have improved their results after the Houston game). And whenever the Bulldogs have stepped up a little they’ve been turned away hard, losing twice by 22 points to Colorado State and by 16 and 14-point margins to Nevada.
The Play: FRESNO STATE -14
