This week’s parlay bet is going to follow a “theme,” in that we will focus on the Florida-based schools, one of which (Florida) is playing the #1 team in the country.
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One of the others (Florida State), where the prospects looked promising a little more than a week ago, may already be in crisis time, with the coach’s head on the chopping block.
No, it’s not the “Big Three” anymore in the Sunshine State, but one of them has a chance to establish itself as a big dog in the SEC.
Crimson Tide at Gators Parlay Betting
Alabama vs. Florida Prediction
Time: Saturday, September 18th at 3:30 PM ET
ATS Odds: Alabama Crimson Tide -14.5 (-105) vs. Florida Gators +14.5 (-115)
The Play: FLORIDA +14.5
Florida is ranked #11 in the Associated Press poll, so the Gators are a good football team. But what distresses us a little is the way coach Dan Mullen is handling his situation at quarterback.
What do we mean? Well, through the first two games, against Florida Atlantic and South Florida, Emory Jones has thrown four interceptions and averaged only 5.4 yards per attempt.
By contrast, Anthony Richardson, in limited action, has come off the bench to average 17.5 yards per pass attempt and 25 yards per rush (275 total), producing a total of four TD’s along the way.
Yet he is hesitant to displace Jones right now. And while he is not wrong in pointing out that some of Richardson’s scrambling exploits are a result of him missing his reads on pass routes, he nonetheless possesses the kinds of quality that have had a way of confusing Nick Saban’s defenses in the past.
And we don’t see Jones doing a whole lot of business against the Tide stop unit.
What keeps us on the “dog” side is that Mullen probably wouldn’t hesitate to insert Richardson if it looks like the thing is starting to get out of hand. So the back door is alive. And let’s not forget that Florida fought a more talented ‘Bama team tooth and nail in last year’s SEC title game, losing 52-46.
Spartans at Hurricanes Parlay Betting
Michigan State vs. Miami Prediction
Time: Saturday, September 18th at 12 Noon ET
ATS Odds: Miami Hurricanes -6 (-110) vs. Michigan State Spartans +6 (-110)
The Play: MICHIGAN STATE +6
Miami narrowly escaped an upset defeat against Appalachian State last week, and clings to the #24 spot in the AP rankings. Needless to say, the ‘Canes are somewhat less than sizzling under Manny Diaz, and with QB D’Eriq King (only six yards an attempt vs.ASU), they are not ascending to the level where they can play with the really big boys.
Of course, we don’t operate on the assumption that Michigan State is one of the big boys again, but if their opening win over Northwestern is any indication, they’re playing with some more bite for Mel Tucker this year.
They’ll have to handle heat (and probably rain), but the Spartans are showing an ability to travel by land, after averaging just 2.7 yards per carry last season. Kenneth Walker, who transferred from Wake Forest, carved up Northwestern for 264 yards and four touchdowns on 23 carries, and then Jordan Simmons had 121 against Youngstown State.
Seminoles at Demon Deacons Parlay Betting
Florida State vs. Wake Forest Prediction
Time: Saturday, September 18th at 3:30 PM ET
ATS Odds: Wake Forest Demon Deacons -5.5 (-110) vs. Florida State Seminoles +5.5 (-110)
The Play: WAKE FOREST -5.5
In retrospect (it’s always advantageous to look at things in retrospect), FSU was a prime candidate for a letdown after fighting Notre Dame so hard before losing just six days prior, but still, is there an excuse for going down to defeat against FCS Jacksonville State (which isn’t in Florida, by the way)?
That’s just another indication that this program, as impressive as it may have looked at times against the Fighting Irish, still has a long way to go. Again,there is an emotional carry-over, as JSU beat them on a Hail Mary play with no time remaining.
We definitely don’t expect this team to quit on McKenzie Milton and his comeback story. But you’ve got to ask – what are they prepared to do about all this, especially as they are doing their best to beat themselves (11 penalties for 114 yards last week).
You can’t sleep on Wake Forest; they averaged 36 ppg last year and brought every offensive starter back, including experienced QB Sam Hartman. It’s true they have played an FCS team (Norfolk State) and a team that sat out last year (Old Dominion). But this works as a technical play, as Dave Clawson’s squad is 8-1-1 ATS last ten games at home.
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FIU Panthers at Red Raiders Parlay Betting
FIU vs. Texas Tech Prediction
Time: Saturday, September 18th at 7 PM ET
ATS Odds: Texas Tech Red Raiders -20 (-110) vs. FIU Panthers +20 (-110)
The Play: TEXAS TECH -20
At first glance, this doesn’t look like your daddy’s (or older brother’s) Texas Tech squad, where they sprayed the ball all over the place. But the fact is, offensive coordinator Sonny Cumbie is part of that Air Raid legacy, having been a QB for Mike Leach for five years. And head coach Matt Wells likes to play fast. So we have the makings of blowouts against overmatched personnel.
Of course, you’d have to throw out the Red Raiders’ life-and-death struggle with FCS entry Stephen F. Austin last time out, but there was a lot to appreciate about the season-opening win over Houston (newly-admitted to the Big 12, by the way).
Texas Tech’s defense is a solid unit, and although Butch Davis’ FIU attack has a presentable running back in D’vonte Price (two fumbles last week in loss to Texas State), it lacks enough punch to trade points. Davis didn’t want a “quarterback carousel,” so he is sticking with Max Bortenschlager, who is a 50% passer at best. There are many more moving parts on the other side, including Oregon transfer QB Tyler Shough.
