You may not realize this, but betting baseball after the All-Star break is a thing. Yea, really. It starts the first game back from the sabbatical and carries on into September. So how different is it, let's cover the bases and create a game plan for the remainder of the season.
First Game Back Attack
It is not uncommon for even the sharpest of those making betting picks to be leery jumping back in after several days off. Every player went their separate way except for those that went to the All-Star festivities. While many teams having good seasons will be able to pick up where they left off after the time off, those who are struggling or playing poorly headed back after the break might start slowly.
This is bore-out by the fact home favorites in their first game back have won over 63 percent of the time since 2005 good for +23.7 units of profit. Being the better team and playing at home is an advantage and it's proven so. Typically, this team would also have their best pitcher that season also starting (though the same would be true of the visitor).
In-Season Baseball Betting Situations That Are Money-Makers
While home underdogs are often a valuable asset to your handicapping, with the return of baseball after several days off, they have not shown to be a good wager. Home dogs are at just under 40 percent when it comes to winning. The loss of units is not significant at just past -7, but this is still a losing proposition.
Lastly, lower scoring games are the norm, with Under's in the 58 to 59 percent range. There three reasons as to why; quality starting pitchers, a rested bullpen and a hitter's timing possibly off. Use these to your advantage.
Betting Advice About the Odds
If not immediately, by the latter stages of July, oddsmakers will begin making lines that will reflect the differences between playoff contenders and those whose season is fundamentally over except they have to complete the 162-game schedule.
Oddsmakers and the sportsbooks they work for are also aware the majority of bettors will want to be on the stronger teams or playing against the really pathetic ones and adjust the money lines and the run lines accordingly. Here is what we mean.
Let's say the New York Yankees are having a very good season and are -220 home favorites on Memorial Day weekend against visiting Baltimore. Two to three months later, the same two teams are playing the same way they were earlier and as luck would have it, the exact pair of starting pitchers will collide. Though not every bettor would be willing to back -220 odds, they would have an even harder time placing a bet on the Yankees at -240 to -250 or higher. Yet, that is a likely scenario in the second half of the season on mismatches.
Women Betting Sports Is On the Rise
The same would also be true on the run line. Keep in mind, a -1.5 run line is roughly half of a money line (-240 ML = -120 RL). And though it is not uncommon to see run lines shaded in particular contests in the first half of the season, it becomes extremely common in to in late July, August, and September. A -250 ML fave could jump to as high as -160 to -170 RL given the right set of circumstances and amount of money wagered on that specific game.
Lastly, if you are one of those bettors that shies away from betting higher than -150 to -160 favorites in the first half of the season, if you choose to do that in the second half, on many days that will leave you with slim pickings.
Be willing to go to -170 to -175 because that will be the market and look to reduce your selections to prevent days that could turn into heavier losses with the adjusted odds.