The Giants slipped to 2-3 both straight-up and against the spread when they let Sunday’s game against Minnesota slip away. After keeping thing close in the first half, they were on the wrong end of a 28-10 loss closing as 5.5-point home underdogs. This followed back-to-back wins against Tampa Bay on the road and Washington at home.
New York now has the unenviable task of facing the 5-0 Patriots on the road this Thursday night as a 16.5-point underdog on the opening spread with a few of the top online sportsbooks. The total line for this inter-conference clash opened at 44.5 points.
New England has stayed true to form in its first five games by outscoring its opponents 155-34. After struggling a bit against Washington on the road this past Sunday, the defending Super Bowl Champs finally got things in gear and rolled to a 33-7 victory as heavy 16.5-point favorites.
The Patriots are 3-2 ATS in those five games after failing to cover against the New Jets at home and Buffalo on the road.
Top Underdog Bet- Take the Giants (+16.5) at New England
The Giants do not face New England all that much in the regular season, but they do have a history against this team. New York ended the Patriots’ bid for a perfect run to a Super Bowl title in 2007 and it beat them again in Super Bowl XLVI in the 2011 season.
The teams have gone their separate ways since then with New England winning two of the last three Super Bowls and New York winning a grand total of eight games in its last two regular season campaigns. The gap remains just as wide this year, but I still think that the Giants can keep this game closer than the current betting line suggests.
Now that the Daniel Jones’ era in New York is officially underway with the rookie quarterback taking the starting role from long-time veteran Eli Manning, so are the growing pains that come with a move like this.
This has been heightened with running back Saquon Barkley sidelined with an ankle injury. His playing status for Thursday night is listed as “out” and backup Wayne Gallman is in concussion protocol coming off the loss to Minnesota.
The short week will not help the cause coming off a bad loss, but that could actually work in New York’s favor. The basis for this week’s underdog pick is the massive amount of points. The Giants are not going to win this game, but they could catch New England looking past this contest on Thursday night with an eye towards some tougher matchups down the road.
It is rare that head coach Bill Belichick would not have his team ready to play, but after barely getting past Buffalo in Week 3 and a very slow start against Washington, the Patriots may not bring their A Game to Gillette Stadium against another team they are expected to easily roll over.
A few recent betting trends also point towards New York covering in this one. It is currently 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games and a perfect 5-0 ATS going back over its last five games against New England.
I would be the first to admit that this underdog pick is a bit of a flyer given each team’s current form, but the current spread is geared towards keeping money off the Patriots making it high enough for me to bite.