Handicapping Postseason Football Games

Mid-December is the time of the year when sports bettors start turning their attention to football postseason handicapping. College football is at the top of the list with the upcoming bowl season. Yet, it is not to early to start formulating a strategy for betting the NFL playoffs as that postseason picture starts to come into focus.

Postseason College Football Betting

The college bowl season has grown into a 40+-game schedule that covers a span of four weeks from late-December right through the College Football Playoff Championship the second Monday in January. Your betting strategy should be broken down into four sections:

•    Early bowl games
•    Major bowl games
•    Playoff semifinals
•    National title game

The early bowl games could offer the best value for cashing winners. The lean should be towards the underdogs, especially when the team getting points is from a Mid Major conference. These are the teams with something to prove to both their fan base and themselves. 

Expect the Unexpectable Betting Late Season NFL Games

In more than a few early bowl games, you have teams from a major conference that failed to live up to expectations this season. They expected to be playing on New Year’s Day or, at least, after Christmas. These teams’ motivation to play in a minor bowl will probably below, while the underdogs from the Mid Majors feel like their playing in the Super Bowl.

When it comes to the major bowl games, the favorites gain the edge. These are the best teams in the nation and they still have something to prove. Each game needs to be broken down on its own merits but the best teams with the best coaches usually come out on top.

The two playoff semifinal matchups set up each season’s national title game. Once again, the cream usually rises to the top with this much on the line. If the spread is tight, the lean is towards the favorite. If there is a double-digit spread, then there is value in betting the underdog to cover. These are the top four teams in the country, so there is a reason they are playing in this game.

You could apply this same rationale to the national title game. When the two best teams in the nation clash, you have to rely heavily on your football postseason handicapping skills.

Postseason NFL Betting

Betting the pros in the postseason comes down to a heavier weight on overall talent and less on the emotion that drives the results at the college level. Favorites tend to go chalk in the earlier rounds. Things start to tighten up once you get down to the final four teams in the conference championships. 

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An added edge automatically goes to the home team. The goal of most NFL teams is to qualify for the playoffs. The goal for the elite teams in the league is to earn home-field advantage all the way up to the Super Bowl. Sometimes that edge is enhanced by January weather if the games are played outside. A big part of that edge goes to crowd noise as a disrupting factor. 

Overall, NFL players love playing in front of the hometown fans as a motivating force. The best NFL teams use that edge to the fullest and will normally do so by covering against the spread while winning the game straight-up.

About the Author

A big part of the services that my marketing company, Blue Pointe Advisors, LLC offers is written content for sports betting websites.  I have been working as a full-time sports betting writer for the past nine years following a previous career in the field of sales and marketing.

I consider myself extremely fortunate to be able to write about my true passion in life; the world of sports. I also enjoy concentrating the bulk of my pieces towards the betting angle in sports.

It is always a challenge to take past results and current form to try and correctly determine a future result. Sports brings out the unpredictability in what should be a fairly predictable outcome based on the stats, facts and recent trends in a particular matchup. The one thing that I have learned over the past decade or so is that when it comes to betting on sports there is no such thing as a lock.

The main objective with my writing style is to create insightful articles on a wide variety of sporting topics that can provide an edge to today's sophisticated online player. While there are times when my predictions fall well short of the actual outcome, I still enjoy trying to come up with a logical explanation to support my views on every pick I make.

My love of sports started a long time ago when I was just a kid growing up just outside Philadelphia. While I was a big Phillies, Flyers and 76ers fan, my number one team was always the Eagles. My dad was a season ticket holder from 1961 to 2002 and I would honestly say that he missed less than a handful of games than more than a few dismal seasons.

I was fortunate enough to go to a number of Eagles’ games back in the day including the 1980 NFC Championship when Wilbert Montgomery ran roughshod over the bitter rival Dallas Cowboys to lead Philly to their first appearance in a Super Bowl. Flash forward 40 years later and am I still celebrating the thrilling victory over New England in Super Bowl LVII. I know that my dad was smiling down on that one.