How the NFL’s Biggest Free Agency News Impacted Betting Markets

The sports world has essentially grinded to a halt, while the world tackles coronavirus. We hope all of our readers are staying safe and practicing social distancing during this global pandemic.

Despite hardly any live sports being played at the moment, NFL free agency has begun.


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There were a number of surprising trades agreed upon in the last few days and we’re going to take a look at the biggest trades and how those are going to impact the futures betting markets.

However, before we analyze the big trades, we have something even more important to discuss.

Tom Brady Will Not Be Back With the Patriots

On Tuesday, Tom Brady announced that he won’t be returning to the New England Patriots.

This was a surprise to many Patriots fans. Brady stated he’ll be “FOREVER A PATRIOT”, but he will be playing elsewhere next season.

BetOnline has released a market on where he’ll sign.

Brady is expected to sign with the Buccaneers (-150) or Chargers (+120)

Both teams need a starting QB and have a lot of weapons at the skill positions.

The Bucs have two stud WRs in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, while the Chargers are stacked on offense with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler (RB) and Hunter Henry (TE).

However, the AFC West and NFC South are a lot tougher to play in than the AFC East.

 


Tom Brady announces he will not return to the Patriots | Get Up


 

One thing to consider is that Brady may want to be in Los Angeles to close out his career, just like LeBron James, as he has recently launched a Hollywood production company.

The other teams BetOnline priced up for the market are the Dolphins (+1200), 49ers (+1400), Colts (+1600), Raiders (+1600), Bears (+2000) and Cowboys (+3300), but some of these are unrealistic.

The one darkhorse with some potential are the Dolphins. They have a war chest and have been spending money, plus Brady would get to stay in the AFC East and play the Patriots twice.

It’s tough to know what Brady is thinking, but my money is on him signing with LAC (+120).

Best Bet: Tom Brady Will Sign With the Los Angeles Chargers (+120)

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WR DeAndre Hopkins Has Been Dealt to the Cardinals

Wow!

How could the Texans trade away Hopkins for next to nothing?

DeAndre Hopkins was clamoring for a new contract extension and it’s clear the Texans didn’t want to pay him more based on this trade.

Arizona will get Hopkins and a 2020 4th round pick, while the Texans will get RB David Johnson, a 2020 2nd round pick and a 2021 4th round pick in return. This is a horrendous trade for Houston.

Johnson is a shell of his former self and he is no longer a #1 RB after dealing with injuries.

 


Texans trading DeAndre Hopkins to Cardinals for David Johnson


 

Houston’s 2020 NFL regular season win total was at 8.5 games, but that’s going to be lower once the odds are released again. After winning 10 games in 2019, the Texans are going to regress.

Losing a top 5 WR even if disgruntled is going to be too much to overcome. I also feel terrible for QB Deshaun Watson who will now be throwing to Will Fuller V and Kenny Stills on a regular basis.

Arizona’s win total is 6.5 games, but I expect that to trend up after this trade. The Cardinals had a 5-10-1 record in 2019, but Kyler Murray should develop in his second year, especially with Hopkins.

Best Bet: Arizona Cardinals Over 6.5 Games (-130)

WR Stefon Diggs Has Been Dealt to the Bills

Diggs is a big name, but this trade wasn’t as nearly one-sided as the trade above.

Buffalo was able to secure Diggs and a 2020 7th round pick, while the Vikings will receive a lot of picks. The Vikings will receive 1st, 5th and 6th round picks in 2020, plus a 4th round pick in 2021.

Losing Diggs will definitely hurt the Vikings offense and teams are going to be able to focus more on defending Adam Thielen now, but the move was necessary, as the Vikes need cap space.

Adding the Bills 1st round pick will also help them draft a difference-maker.

From the Bills standpoint, they needed a #1 WR.

Diggs is a great get for a team lacking WRs and he isn’t expensive. Diggs is under contract until 2023 at just $12 million per year.

The Bills won 10 games in 2019 and their win total for 2020 is at 8.5 games. If you can get that line I would bet them. In fact, I would bet on them to go over the total even at 9.5 games.

Josh Allen now has a #1 WR and John Brown is still in the fold and will be a great WR2. This defense is going to be among the best in the league and they now have a Brady-less AFC East.

Right now you can bet on the Bills to win the AFC East at +175 odds and I would jump on that before the odds decrease. I expect the Bills will be division favorites by the time the season starts.

Best Bet: Buffalo Bills Over 8.5 Games (-105)

About the Author

Scott is one of our newest writer and handicapper here at ScoresAndStats.com, but he has been writing sports betting content for more than a decade online. His work has been featured on many websites.

 

Scott is a millennial (born in 1989) who grew up in Toronto, Canada and he has never left the big city. He grew up playing a few sports (hockey, soccer and baseball) when he was younger. His favorite sport was hockey and he played goalie. He still likes to get out to the rinks to play some pick-up with his buddies.

 

Growing up in Toronto, Scott is a huge fan of all Toronto teams.

 

He watches the Maple Leafs and Raptors religiously. Scott also enjoys watching the Blue Jays, Argonauts and TFC.

 

His best sports memory was when the Raptors were crowned the 2019 NBA Champions. Unfortunately, he’s still waiting for the Maple Leafs to win a Stanley Cup during his lifetime.

 

Scott may be a diehard fan of Toronto sports teams, but he loves watching all sports. He’s a huge UFC fan (look for his UFC betting articles for most events) and he’ll watch just about anything, including tennis, golf, soccer and cricket.

 

Scott is a numbers guy and he likes digging deep into the statistics when handicapping games. He also likes to identify value bets in markets most bettors overlook, including player/team props.

 

When he’s not handicapping and watching sports, he enjoys golfing in the warmer months. He also loves burgers and poutine. Not only is that his favorite meal, but he has tried over 100 burgers in Toronto and he’s constantly looking for the best new burgers in the city.