The variety of statistics in baseball lend itself to finding various ways to beat the sportsbook. If one has the time, they could spend a week looking at many different methods to try to clash and ultimately win more often than not against the oddsmaker.
Yet, with today's fast-paced world, who has the time figure all this out? And even if you as the bettor come across something that has enjoyed profitable numbers, but over the short-term, are you ready to place bets you feel comfortable with?
To save you time and hopefully make you some money, here are betting tips that are good from June thru August. (We'll explain why at the end of this article).
Play On Great Teams To Avoid Sweeps and Against Bad Clubs To Be Swept
What determines a great club? These teams would have a winning percentage of 59 percent or higher for starters. Next, they would have a run differential of at least one run, showing their ability to win a number of contests to two or more runs. Lastly, they have solid starting pitching and a quality bullpen to put away games.
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What these teams should look like at the end of the season is a group that won 96 or more times. However, with all those victories comes about 60 defeats and sometimes during the course of the year they will be swept in a series a few different times.
Along the way will be near misses, losing the first two games but pulling one out to avoid the sweep. If this team has one of its Top 3 starters taking the mound, chances are the pride factor kicks in and they become sharper mentally and find a way to win this games. Since 2014, these squads have won over 65 percent of the time yielded a profit of over 40 units.
The same principles would apply to bad teams just in reverse. Poor clubs with lousy starting pitching and a flammable bullpen are ripe for the sweep in a three-game, sweep as they only win about 40 percent of the time. Bad execution and a lack of confidence leads to losing regularly.
Payback After Sweeps
When a team is swept, it's an embarrassment. They will often circle the next series meeting on the calendar, making that a priority for at the very least winning two of three.
You can profit from this by following this criterion.
* All Paybacks Have to Be in the Same Season
* The Teams Must Have Comparable Ability
The first point is self-explanatory. The second falls into these numbers; the teams need to have a record differential no greater than .80 percent. The example would be one team has a win percentage of .550 or less vs. an opponent with a win percentage of .470 or higher. If it is outside this range, there is a true difference in ability, making it less likely to win twice.
Look specifically at the first two games of the series unless there is a complete pitching mismatch not in your favor.
If you have the pitching edge, don't shy away from the run line, as over 68 percent of game outcomes are two runs or more and that also reduces risk.
Also, if you win the first two games of series, Stop. Don't be greedy. This has profited at over 25 units since 2011.
The Quality Starter Underdog
What we are seeking here is the right starting pitcher in the right situation. Though starting pitcher overall is currently diminished, that's not the case for the good ones. What we are after is a starter that has fits into the Top 20 of at least three of these five categories on their league.
ERA - WHIP - On-Base Pct. (OBP) - OSP - K/W ratio (at least 2-to-1)
Next, either this pitcher has a winning record or his team has a winning record in his starts. Lastly, the team must have a .500 or better record either home or away.
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Obviously, this kind of action is not available all the time, making this spot plays but since 2012, these pitchers and their teams are 70-65, good for +18.6 units, which for dimes bettors is over $18,000.
Earlier I said to stay in the June thru August window. The reason for this is you need a volume of games in a season to understand all teams. Once September comes, the lines are shaded against favorites, teams start paying out the season without purpose and bad clubs showcase young players looking ahead to next year, which places any bettor at a disadvantage.