As if on cue, the Los Angeles Dodgers took over the top spot in the NL West at the beginning of September. The Dodgers held a half-game lead over the Giants as of September 2 thanks to a four-game slide by San Francisco and a 16-3 run by LA. The two teams are finishing out a three-game series today. Both teams have won one game each this weekend.
The Dodgers continue to hold the favorite spot among contenders for the 2021 World Series at +265. In the National League, they are also the overall favorite at +130 to win another NL pennant.
In the American League, the picture is a little less clear. Tampa Bay holds the best record in the AL, but the Houston Astros (+225) remain the favorite to win the pennant. Here’s a look at both pennant races.
Dodgers Repeat?
Los Angeles has won three of the past four NL pennants and, of course, won last year before winning the 2020 World Series. The Dodgers have had their share of setbacks this season, but the acquisitions of Cy Young winner Max Scherzer and SS Trea Turner have helped turn the tide back in the Dodgers favor.
Since the All-Star break, LA is 30-15. The pitching staff has the best ERA in baseball (2.98) and they have been without ace Clayton Kershaw for two months. Walker Buehler (13-2) is in the discussion for the NL Cy Young this season and Julio Urias is 16-3.
The Dodgers are third in runs per game (5.06). Six players have at least 16 home runs led by Max Muncy’s 30. Former NL Rookies of the Year Cody Bellinger and Corey Seager have been hurt and are finally back in the lineup.
LA has caught fire at the right time and they are getting healthier. Should they win the division, the Dodgers will likely earn the top seed in the NL. That comes with home-field advantage which would be a key in an LA repeat.
The Challengers
The San Francisco Giants quietly became the NL’s top team for most of the season with an offense that leads the NL in home runs despite not having a single player with more than 21 (Mike Yastrzemski). Like the Dodgers, the Giants are a top-ten scoring team and have the pitching staff has the second-best ERA in baseball. Even so, San Francisco is listed at +500 to win the NL pennant.
Kevin Gausman (12-5), Anthony DeSclafani (11-6), and Alex Wood (10-4) all have double digit wins and Gausman is among the top five in the NL in ERA (2.52). The Dodgers and Giants could end up playing each other in the NLDS. The winner of the division, as mentioned, probably gets the top seed in the NL. The second-place team will play in the wild card game. If that team wins, the wild card winner plays the top seed in the league.
So far this season, the Dodgers and Giants have split 18 games. The other team that could give the Dodgers a run for their money is Milwaukee. The Brewers have two of the top pitchers in the NL in Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff. They are No. 2 (Burnes, 2.27) and No. 3 (Woodruff, 2.35) in the National League in ERA. The Brewers just swept the Giants in a three-game series. Milwaukee is given +330 odds to win the NL.
Prediction
At this point, bettors have every reason to back the Dodgers. Their lineup puts stress on any pitcher they face. Plus, the Dodgers pitching staff is the deepest in baseball and that’s before they get Kershaw back. Back the Dodgers at +130.
The AL Race
The best team in the AL is clearly Tampa Bay. What the Rays lack is a true superstar though young SS Wander Franco will get there soon. The Rays actually lead MLB in runs per game averaging 5.35. Rays pitchers lead MLB in outs pitched per game (27.28), better than both the Dodgers and the Giants.
Tampa Bay’s team ERA is sixth at 3.67 and the Rays bullpen ERA is second (3.13) only to San Francisco (3.08). While they don’t have a superstar, they do everything it takes to win. Still, the Rays are third on the board in the AL pennant race given +350 odds to win.
Checking in at second on the AL pennant betting board is the Chicago White Sox (+275). The White Sox pitchers are solid (3.78 ERA, 9th in MLB) and the lineup can go off at any time. The White Sox are fifth in the league in runs per game at 5.04.
The Yankees (+400) have been surging lately too. They finally found their groove and recently won 13 in a row to take over the No. 1 wild card spot in the AL. Aaron Judge (.297) and Giancarlo Stanton (.271) have 30 and 26 homers respectively and the Yankees are getting healthy at the right time.
The favorite in the AL is actually Houston at +225. The Astros have a lineup capable of pounding out runs every night. They are second in runs per game (5.24). The pitching is solid as the Astros are sixth in combined ERA (3.71). The problem is that Houston loses a ton of games that they shouldn’t. They recently got shut out in consecutive games by Seattle. That came after a recent 13-2 loss to Texas.
Prediction
The one AL team that has been the most consistent all season long is Tampa Bay. They might not have the stars, but they do what it takes to win. They’ve got the pitching, both starters and bullpen, to go deep in the playoffs. Take Tampa Bay at +350 to win the AL.
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