For the second consecutive year, the Tampa Bay Lightning and New York Islanders will meet in the semifinal round, with the winner advancing to the Stanley Cup Final.
Due to COVID-19 restrictions, the Lightning and Islanders did not play in the regular season, but in the 2019-20 season, Tampa Bay eliminated New York in six games, outscoring the Isles 20-12 over six games.
Tampa Bay’s offense is as good as it gets, and with a steady goaltender in Andrei Vasilevskiy, the Lightning are a tough team to score against. However, the Islanders have adapted their game plan as well; normally a team that suppresses opponent opportunities and wins low-scoring games, New York ranks second among 2021 playoff teams in goals per game, trailing only the Colorado Avalanche, who were eliminated Thursday night.
Islanders vs. Lightning Series Odds
The Lightning are favored to advance to the 2021 Stanley Cup, but can you count the Islanders out?
Tampa Bay Lightning to Win: -265
New York Islanders to Win: +220
Matchups to Watch
Vasilevskiy was named a Vezina Trophy finalist for the fourth straight year, and he was the winner in 2019. However, at the other end of the ice is Semyon Varlamov, who was likely a snub for the 2021 award. Varlamov led all goaltenders in shutouts (seven) during the regular season while ranking second in save percentage (.929) and fourth in GAA (2.04). Varlamov ranked ahead of Vasilevskiy in each of those categories, so he may be playing with a chip on his shoulder.
Since returning from offseason hip surgery, Nikita Kucherov has caught fire. He leads all postseason scorers with 18 points (five goals, 13 assists) in 11 games. Kucherov finished the 2020 postseason as the points leader as well, scoring seven goals and 27 assists in 25 games.
The Islanders excel at limiting opponent scoring chances and using their defense to create offense. In the regular season, New York finished second in goals against per game (2.23), seventh in blocked shots per game (13.99), and third in hits per game (25.54).
Tampa Bay has a clean injury report entering the series. New York will be without captain Anders Lee, who tore his ACL in March and will miss the rest of the season. Oliver Wahlstrom did not play in Game Six against the Bruins, and his status for Game One is in question. Wahlstrom has a goal and two assists in five playoff games, and as one of the Islanders’ top prospects (11th overall pick in 2018), getting both experience for and production from the young winger is huge for the present and future of the franchise.
The Lightning and Islanders both have incredible center depth, and success or failure in the series could depend on center production. Tampa Bay runs Brayden Point, Anthony Cirelli, and Yanni Gourde as the main three centers but will also rotate in any of Steven Stamkos, Barclay Goodrow, Blake Coleman, and Tyler Johnson. Meanwhile, New York is a bit more consistent with their lineup of Mathew Barzal, Brock Nelson, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, and Casey Cizikas.
As a group, Tampa Bay’s centers are more of a consistent threat to score. However, the Islanders’ center corps plays an incredible two-way game and is dangerous in all zones.
Islanders vs. Lightning Series Prediction
The overwhelming factor in this series is Tampa Bay’s star power. The Lightning have the most talented top-to-bottom roster of any playoff team, and they’ve only looked stronger as the postseason continues.
We’re predicting an identical result to last season, with the Lightning beating the Islanders in six games.
Read the latest NHL news with a spin from our expert handicappers.
