I hope your weekend has been a good one. There is a ton of sports action going on. This is possibly THE BEST time of year for a sports fan. College football is on the air, the NFL season is right around the corner, MLB pennant races are heating up; what more do ya want? I’m headed back to the MLB for today’s free pick.
Remember my last pick article when I asked what you consider when you are deciding which game you will bet? Following in that theme, today’s pick caught my eye when both probable pitchers had ERA’s over 5.50, on teams that are among the league leaders in runs scored.
The Astros have scored the 4thmost runs in the AL, with the Angels right behind at #5. It is worth noting though that there is a huge drop-off after the “BIG 4”, with the Angels (664) having scored 49 less runs than the Astros (713).
It is true that the Astros are one of the worst OVER teams at home, having cashed only 42.4% of the time with a 25-34-5 record, but Framber Valdez will help our cause.
Valdez is getting the call from Triple-A Round Rock to take Aaron Sanchez’s spot in the rotation because he’s on the 40-man, and has made quite a few starts in the Majors already this season. He’s not getting the call for his stellar play.
In 5 starts since being sent down, Valdez hasn’t stopped giving up runs. He did have a great outing against the Fresno Grizzlies, pitching 7 scoreless innings, striking out 11, but they are also among the worst teams in AAA. More recently, he gave up 4 earned in his last 2 starts, including 3 homers.
Angel starter Jaime Barria has had a rough go for most of the season, and has a 7.57 ERA since the All-Star break, coughing up 32 hits, including 11 round-trippers, 23 earned runs with 25 K’s and 10 BB over 27.1 innings.
Barria has been especially bad on the road, with an ERA of 9, giving up 34 earned runs in 34 innings. His bullpen won’t be of much help, ranked 19thin the league in ERA at 4.68 (according to Fan Graphs).
A look at pitcher vs. batter numbers shows a lot of crooked numbers, with a 0-3 tag next to Mike Trout’s name. That only means one thing…he’s due. Look for Trout to hit a bomb today and for both offenses to put up some numbers today.
The Astros offense has been somewhat quiet lately, but Bregman is heating up, Brantley has stayed hot, Altuve’s #’s after the ASG are close to the top in baseball, and that’s not even mentioning guys like Springer, Yordon and Yuli. Take the OVER!