What is your strategy when choosing the game you are going to bet? That’s the most common question I get asked, and one that I have a hard time answering. I’d really like to hear your answers too. Let me know your thoughts as you start your process of who you will bet. Answer in the comments section.
For today’s pick, my selection process was a simpler one. I started by looking through league schedules, not paying attention to the odds. I pay attention to team matchups, probable pitchers, location, along with any nuances that pop out.
Today I saw a hot pitcher, on a team playing for a playoff spot, versus a young, not-so-hot pitcher on a team that is showing signs of a letdown team.
Game: Colorado Rockies (58-70, 59-69 ATS) at St. Louis Cardinals (68-58, 67-59 ATS)
When:8:15 PM ET, Friday, August 23rd, 2019
Where:Busch Stadium, St. Louis, Missouri
Current Line:COL +1096 STL -216 Total:8.5
TV Coverage:AT&T SportsNet Rocky Mountain, FS Widwest
Probable Pitchers:Rockies RH Peter Lambert (2-3, 6.55 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Jack Flaherty (7-6, 3.46 ERA)
Jack Flaherty is among the hottest pitchers in baseball, winning 3 of his last four starts, allowing a total of 1 earned run in those starts. That’s 26 innings of Major League baseball!
To take it even farther than that, in Flaherty’s last 8 starts, spanning 50.1 innings, he has allowed a total of 5 earned runs, a 0.89 ERA. In that time, he’s struck out 61, issuing only 14 free passes. This run lowered his season ERA from 4.90 to 3.46.
Flaherty's Start Against the Dodgers
22-year-old Rookie Peter Lambert takes the mound for the Rockies. Lambert has showed he has the stuff to pitch in the Majors for a while, but also is prone to giving up a ton of runs to good teams.
Even though you can attribute some of his inflated 6.55 ERA to the Coors Field effect, his 44:22 K:BB ratio, with a WHIP of 1.56 indicates he’s not missing a lot of bats. On top of that, Lambert has been very bad in August, allowing 19 earned runs in 20 innings, giving up 23 hits, walking 13 while striking out only 9.
Need more? The Cards are among the top NL teams at home, 13 games above .500 at 37-24. Other than the Marlins, the Rockies are the worst away team in the NL at 25-41, 16 games under .500.
Need even more? The Cards have the best bullpen in baseball, with the Rockies 8thfrom the bottom. St. Louis has the 8thbest Run Line record in baseball, and are #5 as the home team, covering 52.5% of the time. Conversely, the Rockies are 26thoverall.
I don’t put much stock in MLB power rankings, but it’s worth noting ScoresandStats has the Cardinals at #10 and the Rockies at #22. ESPN has STL at 11 and COL at 23.
Add in Flaherty versus Lambert, and I love the St. Louis Cardinals Run Line -1.5-105.
MLB Free Pick: St. Louis Cardinals Run Line -1.5-105