In Game 7 of the American League Championship Series against Houston, Charlie Morton was pitching well in the sixth inning but was yanked by manager Kevin Cash, after only 66 pitches. Why? Because the philosophy Cash and the Rays have about their starting pitchers is that they don’t want any hitters to see them three times. That’s the way the math works. Opponents batted .381 against Morton the third time through the lineup. In went hard-thrower Nick Anderson. And the Rays were on the way to the World Series.
In Game 6 of the World Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Blake Snell was sailing along in the sixth inning, having given up two hits with nine strikeouts and a 1-0 lead. Yet Cash took him out after 73 pitches, which brought anger out of the former Cy Young winner. This time Anderson could not get the job done. The Dodgers scored three times and clinched the World Series.
And Cash became the most second-guessed manager in many years.
But the critics were strictly “playing the result” in that individual situation. They weren’t playing all the other results; the ones that got the Rays into the World Series to begin with.
And that’s the thing about Tampa Bay. They understand analytics and use them as well as, if not better then, any other team in the big leagues. Their objective is to get the favorable matchup, in every different circumstance. And they believe they are going to have the most optimal maneuver every time. They’ve got their philosophy and they stick to it as religiously as possible.
They know how to get the most of what they got. They work with players who they consider diamonds in the rough and have figured out a way to employ them in the most judicious way possible. That’s why America’s Bookie patrons should be confident that even with Snell (trade) and Morton (free agency) having departed, they’ll figure out a way to fill the vacuum. And you have to wonder if it matters all that much; they had a winning percentage of .607 in the games either of those two guys had started, and .604 in the games they didn’t.
Veteran retreads pitchers will be counted on now, and already Chris Archer and Rich Hill have participated in wins over the Yankees this weekend.
Cash is the foremost proponent of using an “opener,” a pitcher who starts the game but only throws an inning or two, but throws it hard like a closer. Then bullpen arms take the team the rest of the way, usually pitching an inning or two and rarely allowing any hitter to see the same pitcher twice.
They have what might be the best farm system in the major leagues, because they know their budget limitations won’t allow them to buy a lot of big-money players, and that they’ll have to keep producing prospects as the ones they’ll already produced invariably leave for free agency.
They employ a lot of defensive shifts. They transform hitters, training them to pull the ball and get it up in the air, because mathematically speaking, it will produce more runs for them.
MLB Money Line and Totals Odds
It’s baseball, but it’s also a math and science experiment.
Most teams are doing that to some extent, but the Rays seem more, well, professorial about it.
Simply put, their approach is smarter and sharper than just about every other team.
And they’re doing things smarter than the Yankees, which makes up for a whole lot of money. It would not be surprising if the Rays were to win the AL East and cash (pardon the pun) that +1150 price for the AL pennant.
